At the forefront of the technology industry, Nvidia has once again become the focus of the global capital market. On June 25, local time, the stock price of this AI chip giant soared 4.33% to close at $154.31 per share, setting a record high, and surpassed Microsoft with a market value of $3.77 trillion, regaining the title of "world's No. 1 in market value". This milestone achievement not only reflects the market's fanatical pursuit of artificial intelligence technology, but also reveals Nvidia's strategic ambition to transform from a chip company to an "AI infrastructure empire."

At the forefront of the technology industry, Nvidia has once again become the focus of the global capital market. On June 25, local time, the stock price of this AI chip giant soared 4.33% to close at $154.31 per share, setting a record high, and surpassed Microsoft with a market value of $3.77 trillion, regaining the title of "world's No. 1 in market value". This milestone achievement not only reflects the market's fanatical pursuit of artificial intelligence technology, but also reveals Nvidia's strategic ambition to transform from a chip company to an "AI infrastructure empire."

#CommunityAMA A surge in travel indicates economic optimism. When airlines like Emirates, Singapore Air, or Qantas report strong revenues, currencies of tourism-driven countries like AUD, SGD, or NZD benefit. Use these earnings as indirect FX sentiment indicators.

#CommunityAMA A surge in travel indicates economic optimism. When airlines like Emirates, Singapore Air, or Qantas report strong revenues, currencies of tourism-driven countries like AUD, SGD, or NZD benefit. Use these earnings as indirect FX sentiment indicators.

#CommunityAMA When major exporters like Russia or Iran face sanctions, their trading partners adjust supply chains. Currencies of those partners often spike or drop. Watch G7 decisions on commodity sanctions for major FX plays.

#CommunityAMA When major exporters like Russia or Iran face sanctions, their trading partners adjust supply chains. Currencies of those partners often spike or drop. Watch G7 decisions on commodity sanctions for major FX plays.

#CommunityAMA Beyond trade balances, capital account surpluses or deficits indicate forex vulnerability. A capital deficit paired with a trade deficit often leads to currency weakening. Analyze current and capital account trends together for a full picture.

#CommunityAMA Beyond trade balances, capital account surpluses or deficits indicate forex vulnerability. A capital deficit paired with a trade deficit often leads to currency weakening. Analyze current and capital account trends together for a full picture.

The inflation data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on December 22 showed that PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month in November, compared with 0 in the previous month. This was the first decline since April 2020. Core PCE rose 3.2% year-on-year, a slightly lower increase than in October. There are many international investment banks that expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25BP (basis points) three times in March, May and June next year, and then cut interest rates every quarter until the interest rate level reaches 3.25%~3.5%. Previously, mainstream institutions expected the first interest rate cut to occur after July.#CommunityAMA

The inflation data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on December 22 showed that PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month in November, compared with 0 in the previous month. This was the first decline since April 2020. Core PCE rose 3.2% year-on-year, a slightly lower increase than in October. There are many international investment banks that expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25BP (basis points) three times in March, May and June next year, and then cut interest rates every quarter until the interest rate level reaches 3.25%~3.5%. Previously, mainstream institutions expected the first interest rate cut to occur after July.#CommunityAMA

In the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) in the United States this year from 3.7% to 3.2%, and raised its forecast for economic growth from 2.1% to 2.6%, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 3.8%. Several chief investment officers of international asset management institutions interviewed by reporters said that the US election will be held next year. Generally speaking, it is difficult for monetary and fiscal policies to tighten in an election year. On the one hand, there is the hope of maintaining a soft landing of the economy, and on the other hand, the inflation rate has begun to decline. It is difficult for Fed Chairman Powell to hold back, and the Fed does not need to wait until the core PCE reaches the 2% target value before taking action.#CommunityAMA

In the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) in the United States this year from 3.7% to 3.2%, and raised its forecast for economic growth from 2.1% to 2.6%, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 3.8%. Several chief investment officers of international asset management institutions interviewed by reporters said that the US election will be held next year. Generally speaking, it is difficult for monetary and fiscal policies to tighten in an election year. On the one hand, there is the hope of maintaining a soft landing of the economy, and on the other hand, the inflation rate has begun to decline. It is difficult for Fed Chairman Powell to hold back, and the Fed does not need to wait until the core PCE reaches the 2% target value before taking action.#CommunityAMA

The Fed's shift has undoubtedly led global policy expectations. At the interest rate meeting on December 14, the Fed gave a "Christmas gift" - maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%, marking the third consecutive suspension of interest rate hikes. More importantly, the meeting statement added the statement that "inflation has eased significantly over the past year", and also believed that "the strong economic growth has slowed down", suggesting that the interest rate hike cycle has ended, which was unexpected by the market. #CommunityAMA

The Fed's shift has undoubtedly led global policy expectations. At the interest rate meeting on December 14, the Fed gave a "Christmas gift" - maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%, marking the third consecutive suspension of interest rate hikes. More importantly, the meeting statement added the statement that "inflation has eased significantly over the past year", and also believed that "the strong economic growth has slowed down", suggesting that the interest rate hike cycle has ended, which was unexpected by the market. #CommunityAMA

It is worth mentioning that the market has long expected the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates this year, but the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) and LPR (Loan Market Reference Rate) cuts still failed in December. However, with the sharp narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the Chinese economy still needs further boost, and the state-owned banks cut deposit rates again last week, it is expected that the MLF and LPR interest rates will be lowered at the beginning of next year. #CommunityAMA

It is worth mentioning that the market has long expected the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates this year, but the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) and LPR (Loan Market Reference Rate) cuts still failed in December. However, with the sharp narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the Chinese economy still needs further boost, and the state-owned banks cut deposit rates again last week, it is expected that the MLF and LPR interest rates will be lowered at the beginning of next year. #CommunityAMA

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, told China Business News: "All roads may lead to a rate cut in 2024. All these central banks are moving in the same direction and destination - the anti-inflation process will continue, but the rate hikes have ended, and rate cuts may begin in the first half of next year. It is expected that policies may remain unclear for some time in the future, which may lead to fluctuations in yields and various assets, but considering the general trend of the monetary policy environment, it is expected that global risk appetite will be generally positive as we enter 2024."#CommunityAMA

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, told China Business News: "All roads may lead to a rate cut in 2024. All these central banks are moving in the same direction and destination - the anti-inflation process will continue, but the rate hikes have ended, and rate cuts may begin in the first half of next year. It is expected that policies may remain unclear for some time in the future, which may lead to fluctuations in yields and various assets, but considering the general trend of the monetary policy environment, it is expected that global risk appetite will be generally positive as we enter 2024."#CommunityAMA

#CommunityAMA Some nations end fiscal years in March (India), others in December. As governments close budgets or firms finalize books, capital moves. Observe year-end flows to catch forex rotations, especially among emerging market currencies.

#CommunityAMA Some nations end fiscal years in March (India), others in December. As governments close budgets or firms finalize books, capital moves. Observe year-end flows to catch forex rotations, especially among emerging market currencies.

the Fed may restart the process of cutting interest rates, although he did not make it clear when to take action. Goolsbee pointed out: "Surprisingly, as of now, we have seen three consecutive months of stable inflation data without a significant increase." He emphasized that if the impact of tariffs continues to be mild, "then in my opinion, we have never deviated from what I call the 'golden path', that is, the healthy track of the US economy before the introduction of tariffs." He further stated: "If the dust has settled, then we should continue to advance the previous monetary policy path." This remark suggests that if inflation remains under control in the future, the Fed may resume the previously suspended interest rate cut cycle.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

the Fed may restart the process of cutting interest rates, although he did not make it clear when to take action. Goolsbee pointed out: "Surprisingly, as of now, we have seen three consecutive months of stable inflation data without a significant increase." He emphasized that if the impact of tariffs continues to be mild, "then in my opinion, we have never deviated from what I call the 'golden path', that is, the healthy track of the US economy before the introduction of tariffs." He further stated: "If the dust has settled, then we should continue to advance the previous monetary policy path." This remark suggests that if inflation remains under control in the future, the Fed may resume the previously suspended interest rate cut cycle.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

#CommunityAMA Widening CDS spreads signal rising default risk. If Italy’s CDS spreads spike, EUR sentiment drops. Use CDS as a real-time macro fear gauge and align with defensive or bearish positioning in associated currencies.

#CommunityAMA Widening CDS spreads signal rising default risk. If Italy’s CDS spreads spike, EUR sentiment drops. Use CDS as a real-time macro fear gauge and align with defensive or bearish positioning in associated currencies.

The short-term changes in market sentiment are focused on the repricing of interest rate cut expectations. Before the resolution, investors tended to believe that the central bank would postpone the interest rate cut based on the shrinking GDP in April and the high inflation in May. After the resolution, the 6-3 vote and Bailey's "gradual downward" statement strengthened the possibility of an interest rate cut in August.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA#VeteranIBSuccessStory

The short-term changes in market sentiment are focused on the repricing of interest rate cut expectations. Before the resolution, investors tended to believe that the central bank would postpone the interest rate cut based on the shrinking GDP in April and the high inflation in May. After the resolution, the 6-3 vote and Bailey's "gradual downward" statement strengthened the possibility of an interest rate cut in August.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA#VeteranIBSuccessStory

In the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year government bond remained stable at around 4.1%, reflecting that the market's concerns about medium- and long-term inflation expectations have not increased significantly. In the stock market, the moderate rise of the FTSE 100 benefited from policy stability, but the energy and retail sectors were under pressure due to inflationary pressure.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

In the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year government bond remained stable at around 4.1%, reflecting that the market's concerns about medium- and long-term inflation expectations have not increased significantly. In the stock market, the moderate rise of the FTSE 100 benefited from policy stability, but the energy and retail sectors were under pressure due to inflationary pressure.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

The impact of the resolution on market trends is concentrated in the exchange rate and bond markets. The pound quickly stabilized after a short-term dive, indicating that the market is highly receptive to the central bank's "gradual and cautious" guidance. An institutional analyst said: "The short-term support level of the pound against the US dollar is 1.3350. If inflation data continues to exceed expectations, the risk of falling below 1.33 will increase.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

The impact of the resolution on market trends is concentrated in the exchange rate and bond markets. The pound quickly stabilized after a short-term dive, indicating that the market is highly receptive to the central bank's "gradual and cautious" guidance. An institutional analyst said: "The short-term support level of the pound against the US dollar is 1.3350. If inflation data continues to exceed expectations, the risk of falling below 1.33 will increase.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

The Bank of England's decision is closely related to the Fed's policy path. On June 18, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, lowered its growth forecast for 2025 and raised its inflation forecast, showing its vigilance against inflation. The Bank of England cut interest rates in sync with the Fed (both cut 100 basis points cumulatively), but the market expects the Fed to cut another 50 basis points this year, while the Bank of England may only cut 25-50 basis points, reflecting the divergence of the inflation and growth environments of the two countries. The inflation pressure in the UK (3.4%) is higher than that in the United States (about 2.6%), but the economic weakness is even greater, forcing the central bank to strike a difficult balance between fighting inflation and preventing recession.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

The Bank of England's decision is closely related to the Fed's policy path. On June 18, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, lowered its growth forecast for 2025 and raised its inflation forecast, showing its vigilance against inflation. The Bank of England cut interest rates in sync with the Fed (both cut 100 basis points cumulatively), but the market expects the Fed to cut another 50 basis points this year, while the Bank of England may only cut 25-50 basis points, reflecting the divergence of the inflation and growth environments of the two countries. The inflation pressure in the UK (3.4%) is higher than that in the United States (about 2.6%), but the economic weakness is even greater, forcing the central bank to strike a difficult balance between fighting inflation and preventing recession.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

"The central bank is likely to focus on stability and keep the rate at 4.25%, but inflation is still high and the pace of rate cuts is like a slow-acting medicine." After the resolution, expectations for rate cuts were slightly advanced, with the swap market showing that the probability of a rate cut in August rose to 80%, and the probability of three rate cuts (25 basis points each) this year rose from 35% to 50%. This reflects the market's sensitivity to voting differences, and the 6-3 result was interpreted as a signal of policy easing, although the central bank's wording was still cautious.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

"The central bank is likely to focus on stability and keep the rate at 4.25%, but inflation is still high and the pace of rate cuts is like a slow-acting medicine." After the resolution, expectations for rate cuts were slightly advanced, with the swap market showing that the probability of a rate cut in August rose to 80%, and the probability of three rate cuts (25 basis points each) this year rose from 35% to 50%. This reflects the market's sensitivity to voting differences, and the 6-3 result was interpreted as a signal of policy easing, although the central bank's wording was still cautious.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

#CommunityAMA April tax season in the U.S. affects cash repatriation flows. Similar tax cycles exist in Japan, Canada, and Australia. Track how domestic companies move currency in/out of the system to forecast seasonal volatility.

#CommunityAMA April tax season in the U.S. affects cash repatriation flows. Similar tax cycles exist in Japan, Canada, and Australia. Track how domestic companies move currency in/out of the system to forecast seasonal volatility.

#CommunityAMA MSCI or FTSE index reshuffling causes billions in asset reallocation. Countries that gain weightings in global indices see currency inflows. Prepare positions around index rebalancing windows for optimized timing.

#CommunityAMA MSCI or FTSE index reshuffling causes billions in asset reallocation. Countries that gain weightings in global indices see currency inflows. Prepare positions around index rebalancing windows for optimized timing.

New York cocoa futures fell slightly by 0.30%, with the settlement price at $8,737 per ton; London cocoa futures also fell by 0.25%. Despite the correction, cocoa futures prices still fluctuated within the historical high range.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA

New York cocoa futures fell slightly by 0.30%, with the settlement price at $8,737 per ton; London cocoa futures also fell by 0.25%. Despite the correction, cocoa futures prices still fluctuated within the historical high range.#VeteranIBSuccessStory#CommunityAMA