Weekly Insight: Why was Warsh’s Silence more impactful than his words?Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting is the key event, with markets pricing only a 5.0% chance of a rate hike, while any guidance on the timing and pace of future increases will be closely watched.Euro: The euro held near 1.12 this week as France’s fiscal deadlock remained in focus. With French-German yield spreads near decade-plus highs, investors are awaiting progress in budget talks, though prospects for a breakthrough remain slim. ECB hawkishness has offered limited support, as geopolitical uncertainty and fiscal risks continue to weigh on the currency.Sterling: The British Pound ended the week higher, with GBP/USD recovering from the low-1.32s as investors took profits on the dollar's rally. It also made gains against the single currency as GBP/EUR held above 1.18 near one-year highs, supported by France's fiscal challenges and a softer ECB outlook. UK GDP again beat expectations, with labour, inflation and retail sales data due ahead of the BoE's early November meeting.Wall Street: US stock indexes ended last week mostly lower because of the several negative factors mentioned above.The Week ahead The University of Michigan sentiment measures, home sales readings, and PMIs releases are the most important data this week. Fed’s policymakers will speak in the new week, which could pave the way against FOMC decision in its October 27-28 meeting. Flash readings of manufacturing and services PMI indicators are scheduled to be released across Eurozone and UK in addition to UK CPI and PPI inflation. China will see the release of GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and employment.Japan will release trade, CPI, PMI and retail sales data, key inputs for the BoJ's tightening debate with implications for global bond yields and FX volatility, while India publishes industrial output figures.A large number of earning reported will be released this week, which is expected to have a strong impact on price action.
Weekly Insight: Why was Warsh’s Silence more impactful than his words?Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting is the key event, with markets pricing only a 5.0% chance of a rate hike, while any guidance on the timing and pace of future increases will be closely watched.Euro: The euro held near 1.12 this week as France’s fiscal deadlock remained in focus. With French-German yield spreads near decade-plus highs, investors are awaiting progress in budget talks, though prospects for a breakthrough remain slim. ECB hawkishness has offered limited support, as geopolitical uncertainty and fiscal risks continue to weigh on the currency.Sterling: The British Pound ended the week higher, with GBP/USD recovering from the low-1.32s as investors took profits on the dollar's rally. It also made gains against the single currency as GBP/EUR held above 1.18 near one-year highs, supported by France's fiscal challenges and a softer ECB outlook. UK GDP again beat expectations, with labour, inflation and retail sales data due ahead of the BoE's early November meeting.Wall Street: US stock indexes ended last week mostly lower because of the several negative factors mentioned above.The Week ahead The University of Michigan sentiment measures, home sales readings, and PMIs releases are the most important data this week. Fed’s policymakers will speak in the new week, which could pave the way against FOMC decision in its October 27-28 meeting. Flash readings of manufacturing and services PMI indicators are scheduled to be released across Eurozone and UK in addition to UK CPI and PPI inflation. China will see the release of GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and employment.Japan will release trade, CPI, PMI and retail sales data, key inputs for the BoJ's tightening debate with implications for global bond yields and FX volatility, while India publishes industrial output figures.A large number of earning reported will be released this week, which is expected to have a strong impact on price action.
