Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said weak employment data and the Trump administration's decision to replace the #SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said weak employment data and the Trump administration's decision to replace the #SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

attracting bargain-hunting and helping them resist any correction. Da#BrokerEvaluation#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth

attracting bargain-hunting and helping them resist any correction. Da#BrokerEvaluation#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth

Although the US dollar index rebounded to 99.07 on Tuesday, it ultimately retreated to 98.76, indicating a weakening rebound. The dollar's weakness provided solid support for gold prices#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Although the US dollar index rebounded to 99.07 on Tuesday, it ultimately retreated to 98.76, indicating a weakening rebound. The dollar's weakness provided solid support for gold prices#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September has soared to 91%, and the market expects a cumulative rate cut of 130 basis points by October 2026. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates three times in a row starting in September, by 25 basis points each time, and may even cut interest rates by 50 basis points if employment data deteriorates further.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September has soared to 91%, and the market expects a cumulative rate cut of 130 basis points by October 2026. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates three times in a row starting in September, by 25 basis points each time, and may even cut interest rates by 50 basis points if employment data deteriorates further.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

The strong performance of gold prices is closely related to the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The unexpectedly weak US employment data in June showed that employment growth was lower than expected, and the data for the first two months were significantly revised downward, which triggered market concerns about an economic slowdown.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth

The strong performance of gold prices is closely related to the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The unexpectedly weak US employment data in June showed that employment growth was lower than expected, and the data for the first two months were significantly revised downward, which triggered market concerns about an economic slowdown.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth

From a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit to stagnant service sector activity and the uncertainty surrounding key Federal Reserve appointments, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is significantly increasing.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

From a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit to stagnant service sector activity and the uncertainty surrounding key Federal Reserve appointments, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is significantly increasing.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Gold prices continued to rise on Tuesday, hitting a nearly two-week high of $3,390.32 an ounce and closing at $3,380.65, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains, showing strong upward momentum.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Gold prices continued to rise on Tuesday, hitting a nearly two-week high of $3,390.32 an ounce and closing at $3,380.65, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains, showing strong upward momentum.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

The price has now regained its footing above the 5-day moving average and is trying to move closer to the 20-day moving average. If it can effectively break through the short-term resistance level of $65.80, it will be expected to challenge the medium-term resistance area near $67.50.

The price has now regained its footing above the 5-day moving average and is trying to move closer to the 20-day moving average. If it can effectively break through the short-term resistance level of $65.80, it will be expected to challenge the medium-term resistance area near $67.50.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above neutral territory, and the MACD, while still in negative territory, is showing signs of narrowing, suggesting weakening downward momentum. Overall, absent any new negative supply news, WTI is likely to experience a short-term volatile rebound. However, significant pressure from the upper moving average remains, and a breakout with significant volume remains a concern.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above neutral territory, and the MACD, while still in negative territory, is showing signs of narrowing, suggesting weakening downward momentum. Overall, absent any new negative supply news, WTI is likely to experience a short-term volatile rebound. However, significant pressure from the upper moving average remains, and a breakout with significant volume remains a concern.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $67.93 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.4% to $65.44 a barrel.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $67.93 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.4% to $65.44 a barrel.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

International oil prices rebounded on Wednesday amid concerns about supply disruptions. Earlier, the US President's threat of tariffs on Russian crude oil imports from Asian countries sparked market concerns about whether Asian countries would reduce imports. Furthermore, OPEC+'s decision to end its production cuts early complicated the supply outlook. A sharp drop in US crude oil inventories also provided support to the oil market.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

International oil prices rebounded on Wednesday amid concerns about supply disruptions. Earlier, the US President's threat of tariffs on Russian crude oil imports from Asian countries sparked market concerns about whether Asian countries would reduce imports. Furthermore, OPEC+'s decision to end its production cuts early complicated the supply outlook. A sharp drop in US crude oil inventories also provided support to the oil market.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

The latest Central Bank Gold Statistics Report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that sovereign demand for gold remained stable in June, capping a strong performance in the first half of this year.

The latest Central Bank Gold Statistics Report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that sovereign demand for gold remained stable in June, capping a strong performance in the first half of this year.

Gold Stocks (GDX) and the Hidden Leverage of Gold Prices Fundamental Value Depression Shocking Valuation Discount: Newmont Mining (NEM) trades at a P/E ratio of 14.8x (S&P 500 average: 24x), with a cash flow yield of 6.2%. Cost Reduction Dividend: The average AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of the top 10 gold miners in the world fell to $1,250/oz in Q2 (peaking at $1,380 in 2022), primarily due to falling energy prices and improved ore grades. M&A Catalyst: Barrick Gold (GOLD) spent $2.4 billion to acquire the remaining shares of Randgold. The industry's CR5 market share will exceed 35%, strengthening pricing power. Technical Bottom Confirmed GDX/GLD Ratio Breakout: The price ratio of the gold stock ETF (GDX) to the gold ETF (GLD) rose above 0.22 (a three-year downward trend line), signaling a shift in funds toward leveraged assets. Monthly MACD Golden Cross: The GDX index's monthly MACD histogram has turned red, the RSI has escaped the oversold zone (42 → 55), and trading volume continues to expand. Key resistance: GDX $33.5 (200-day moving average) + $36.8 (Fibonacci 50%), support at $28.0 (pre-pandemic low). Hedging Matrix Direct long GDX: Open a position between $30.5 and $31.0, with a stop-loss of $28.0 and a target of $36.8 (21% arbitrage margin). Volatility arbitrage: Sell GDX $30 put options (18% annualized premium return) and buy gold futures to hedge. Sector rotation strategy: Reduce holdings of tech stocks (valuation bubbles) and increase holdings of gold mining stocks (stagflation assets). Risk hedging: When VIX exceeds 25, buy GDX put options (strike price $28). Key Concept: A gold breakout relies on inflation stickiness (August 10th CPI). Gold mining stocks are currently a more cost-effective leveraged gold alternative.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Gold Stocks (GDX) and the Hidden Leverage of Gold Prices Fundamental Value Depression Shocking Valuation Discount: Newmont Mining (NEM) trades at a P/E ratio of 14.8x (S&P 500 average: 24x), with a cash flow yield of 6.2%. Cost Reduction Dividend: The average AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of the top 10 gold miners in the world fell to $1,250/oz in Q2 (peaking at $1,380 in 2022), primarily due to falling energy prices and improved ore grades. M&A Catalyst: Barrick Gold (GOLD) spent $2.4 billion to acquire the remaining shares of Randgold. The industry's CR5 market share will exceed 35%, strengthening pricing power. Technical Bottom Confirmed GDX/GLD Ratio Breakout: The price ratio of the gold stock ETF (GDX) to the gold ETF (GLD) rose above 0.22 (a three-year downward trend line), signaling a shift in funds toward leveraged assets. Monthly MACD Golden Cross: The GDX index's monthly MACD histogram has turned red, the RSI has escaped the oversold zone (42 → 55), and trading volume continues to expand. Key resistance: GDX $33.5 (200-day moving average) + $36.8 (Fibonacci 50%), support at $28.0 (pre-pandemic low). Hedging Matrix Direct long GDX: Open a position between $30.5 and $31.0, with a stop-loss of $28.0 and a target of $36.8 (21% arbitrage margin). Volatility arbitrage: Sell GDX $30 put options (18% annualized premium return) and buy gold futures to hedge. Sector rotation strategy: Reduce holdings of tech stocks (valuation bubbles) and increase holdings of gold mining stocks (stagflation assets). Risk hedging: When VIX exceeds 25, buy GDX put options (strike price $28). Key Concept: A gold breakout relies on inflation stickiness (August 10th CPI). Gold mining stocks are currently a more cost-effective leveraged gold alternative.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

EA trading： -

Forex commission： -

Core Drivers: Real Interest Rate Trap vs. Resurgent Safe-Haven Demand In-Depth Analysis of Divergence Signals The "Distorted" Correlation Between Nominal Interest Rates and Gold: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.3% (a high for the year), but gold remained firm above 1950. The key lies in the continued decline in real interest rates (TIPS): currently -0.8% (average -0.2% in 2023), reflecting that market concerns about long-term inflation far outweigh pressure for rate hikes. Undercurrent of Central Bank Gold Purchases: Global central banks' net gold purchases reached 228 tons in Q2 (up 34% year-on-year), with China and Poland accounting for 60% of the increase. Substantial Progress in De-Dollarization: Russia announced that oil trade would be collateralized by gold, and Iran established a gold settlement channel. Speculative Position Alert: CFTC net long gold positions fell to 128,000 contracts (from a peak of 193,000 in March), but ETF holdings (SPDR Gold) actually increased by 4.2%, suggesting a divergence between retail and institutional investors. Key Technical Window Weekly Triangle Convergence: Range-bound fluctuations between 1975 and 2015 have persisted for 14 weeks, with the 50-week moving average (1940) forming a solid base. Volatility Squeeze Signal: Gold's 30-day volatility has fallen to 8% (a new low for the year). Historical data indicates a >70% probability of a breakout, with the direction determined by the August CPI data (released on August 10). Bull-Bear Dividing Point: A daily breakout above 2000 will trigger short-covering, targeting 2075; a break below 1940 could lead to a potential drop to 1900. Practical Strategy Breakthrough Follow: If CPI > 3.3% pushes gold above 2000, chase long positions to 2025 (Fibonacci 61.8%), with a stop-loss at 1985. Hedge Arbitrage: Buy gold call options (strike price 2000) and short silver (recover the gold-silver ratio to 85:1). Core Rationale: In a negative real interest rate environment, gold's anti-inflation properties will ultimately outweigh expectations of rate hikes.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Core Drivers: Real Interest Rate Trap vs. Resurgent Safe-Haven Demand In-Depth Analysis of Divergence Signals The "Distorted" Correlation Between Nominal Interest Rates and Gold: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.3% (a high for the year), but gold remained firm above 1950. The key lies in the continued decline in real interest rates (TIPS): currently -0.8% (average -0.2% in 2023), reflecting that market concerns about long-term inflation far outweigh pressure for rate hikes. Undercurrent of Central Bank Gold Purchases: Global central banks' net gold purchases reached 228 tons in Q2 (up 34% year-on-year), with China and Poland accounting for 60% of the increase. Substantial Progress in De-Dollarization: Russia announced that oil trade would be collateralized by gold, and Iran established a gold settlement channel. Speculative Position Alert: CFTC net long gold positions fell to 128,000 contracts (from a peak of 193,000 in March), but ETF holdings (SPDR Gold) actually increased by 4.2%, suggesting a divergence between retail and institutional investors. Key Technical Window Weekly Triangle Convergence: Range-bound fluctuations between 1975 and 2015 have persisted for 14 weeks, with the 50-week moving average (1940) forming a solid base. Volatility Squeeze Signal: Gold's 30-day volatility has fallen to 8% (a new low for the year). Historical data indicates a >70% probability of a breakout, with the direction determined by the August CPI data (released on August 10). Bull-Bear Dividing Point: A daily breakout above 2000 will trigger short-covering, targeting 2075; a break below 1940 could lead to a potential drop to 1900. Practical Strategy Breakthrough Follow: If CPI > 3.3% pushes gold above 2000, chase long positions to 2025 (Fibonacci 61.8%), with a stop-loss at 1985. Hedge Arbitrage: Buy gold call options (strike price 2000) and short silver (recover the gold-silver ratio to 85:1). Core Rationale: In a negative real interest rate environment, gold's anti-inflation properties will ultimately outweigh expectations of rate hikes.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Driving Logic Reversal: Narrowing Interest Rate Spreads + Safe-Having Wave Carry Capital Flight The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Shifts to "Hidden Tightening": Japan's core CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in June (15 consecutive months above 2%), and the 10-year government bond yield broke through 0.6%, approaching the BOJ's upper limit. Markets are betting on the BOJ's elimination of the YCC in September, leading to a 37% drop in short yen positions (CFTC data). Australia's economic engine is stalling: China's real estate crisis has dragged down iron ore prices to $95/ton (-22% from the beginning of the year), and Australia's trade surplus has narrowed to A$5.2 billion (from A$7.8 billion previously). Interest rate futures suggest the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points next year, narrowing the Australia-US interest rate gap from the current 4.1% to 3.3%. Risk sentiment reverses: The US VIX index jumped to 18.5 (year-to-date average: 14.3), and the carry trade unwinding pressure index (compiled by the BIS) rose to 79 (warning level: 70). Technical Top Confirmed Weekly Chart: AUD/JPY formed a "triple head" pattern, breaking the neckline at 97.80, with volume expanding to 2.3 times its average. Gann Angles: Price broke below the 3x1 ascending trendline (currently 98.20), with next support at 94.50 (March 2023 low). Carry Value: The 1-year AUD/JPY swap spread narrowed to 4.8% (peak 6.2%), with carry trade returns falling below hedging costs. Hedging window open Trend short: Open a short position in the 98.50-99.00 range, stop loss 100.30, target 94.50 Volatility arbitrage: Sell AUD/JPY 3M call options (strike price 102.00), buy JPY/USD call options to hedge Turning point warning: Keep a close eye on the August 7th BOJ meeting minutes. If there is a statement of "flexible adjustment of the YCC," the yen will appreciate faster. Data anchors: Federal Reserve Rate Probability: CME FedWatch Tool Eurozone Economic Indicators: Eurostat Carry Liquidation Pressure Index: BIS Quarterly Review Option Volatility: Refinitiv Skew Current strategy focuses on policy differentials and capital flows. Dynamic position adjustments will be made based on events such as the non-farm payrolls and CPI.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation##ExpertReview#ExpertReview

Driving Logic Reversal: Narrowing Interest Rate Spreads + Safe-Having Wave Carry Capital Flight The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Shifts to "Hidden Tightening": Japan's core CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in June (15 consecutive months above 2%), and the 10-year government bond yield broke through 0.6%, approaching the BOJ's upper limit. Markets are betting on the BOJ's elimination of the YCC in September, leading to a 37% drop in short yen positions (CFTC data). Australia's economic engine is stalling: China's real estate crisis has dragged down iron ore prices to $95/ton (-22% from the beginning of the year), and Australia's trade surplus has narrowed to A$5.2 billion (from A$7.8 billion previously). Interest rate futures suggest the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points next year, narrowing the Australia-US interest rate gap from the current 4.1% to 3.3%. Risk sentiment reverses: The US VIX index jumped to 18.5 (year-to-date average: 14.3), and the carry trade unwinding pressure index (compiled by the BIS) rose to 79 (warning level: 70). Technical Top Confirmed Weekly Chart: AUD/JPY formed a "triple head" pattern, breaking the neckline at 97.80, with volume expanding to 2.3 times its average. Gann Angles: Price broke below the 3x1 ascending trendline (currently 98.20), with next support at 94.50 (March 2023 low). Carry Value: The 1-year AUD/JPY swap spread narrowed to 4.8% (peak 6.2%), with carry trade returns falling below hedging costs. Hedging window open Trend short: Open a short position in the 98.50-99.00 range, stop loss 100.30, target 94.50 Volatility arbitrage: Sell AUD/JPY 3M call options (strike price 102.00), buy JPY/USD call options to hedge Turning point warning: Keep a close eye on the August 7th BOJ meeting minutes. If there is a statement of "flexible adjustment of the YCC," the yen will appreciate faster. Data anchors: Federal Reserve Rate Probability: CME FedWatch Tool Eurozone Economic Indicators: Eurostat Carry Liquidation Pressure Index: BIS Quarterly Review Option Volatility: Refinitiv Skew Current strategy focuses on policy differentials and capital flows. Dynamic position adjustments will be made based on events such as the non-farm payrolls and CPI.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation##ExpertReview#ExpertReview

Central banks reported net gold purchases of 22 tons in June, bringing the total to 123 tons in the first half of the year. The World Gold Council (WGC) released its latest Central Bank Gold Statistics report, showing that sovereign demand for gold remained stable in June, #SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

Central banks reported net gold purchases of 22 tons in June, bringing the total to 123 tons in the first half of the year. The World Gold Council (WGC) released its latest Central Bank Gold Statistics report, showing that sovereign demand for gold remained stable in June, #SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

noted that central banks reported net purchases of 22 tons of gold in June, and central banks reported net purchases of 123 tons in the first half of 2025, a slight year-on-year decrease from the first half of 2024.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

noted that central banks reported net purchases of 22 tons of gold in June, and central banks reported net purchases of 123 tons in the first half of 2025, a slight year-on-year decrease from the first half of 2024.#SharingTradingMistakesAndGrowth#BrokerEvaluation

gold prices are expected to reach $3,400/oz in the short term, but investors remain wary of potential pullbacks.

gold prices are expected to reach $3,400/oz in the short term, but investors remain wary of potential pullbacks.

gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is expected to further strengthen. Investors should closely monitor market developments and capitalize on potential opportunities.

gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is expected to further strengthen. Investors should closely monitor market developments and capitalize on potential opportunities.