The US Dollar regained strong upside traction and maintained the price action in the risk complex depressed amidst interest rate cuts speculation and soft US data releases. In addition, the BoE and the Norges Bank kept their policy rates unchanged vs. a surprising cut by the SNB. Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 21: The USD Index (DXY) rose to four-day highs near 105.70 on the back of the rebound in US yields across the curve and the dominating risk-off mood in the FX galaxy. On June 21, the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI will take centre stage seconded by the CB Leading Index and Existing Home Sales.

The US Dollar regained strong upside traction and maintained the price action in the risk complex depressed amidst interest rate cuts speculation and soft US data releases. In addition, the BoE and the Norges Bank kept their policy rates unchanged vs. a surprising cut by the SNB. Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 21: The USD Index (DXY) rose to four-day highs near 105.70 on the back of the rebound in US yields across the curve and the dominating risk-off mood in the FX galaxy. On June 21, the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI will take centre stage seconded by the CB Leading Index and Existing Home Sales.

The US Dollar recouped part of the ground lost following Monday’s negative session along with a decent bounce in US yields, while expectations for a Fed rate cut in September and December remained in place among investors. Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 26: The USD Index (DXY) left behind Monday’s pullback and rose to the 105.80 region, accompanied by a humble rebound in US yields, while disappointing Consumer Confidence readings propped up rate-cut bets. On June 26, MBA will report on the usual weekly Mortgage Applications ahead of New Home Sales.

The US Dollar recouped part of the ground lost following Monday’s negative session along with a decent bounce in US yields, while expectations for a Fed rate cut in September and December remained in place among investors. Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 26: The USD Index (DXY) left behind Monday’s pullback and rose to the 105.80 region, accompanied by a humble rebound in US yields, while disappointing Consumer Confidence readings propped up rate-cut bets. On June 26, MBA will report on the usual weekly Mortgage Applications ahead of New Home Sales.

US Dollar (USD) net long positions have decreased for the second week in a row. The Euro (EUR) net short positions have increased, driven by a decrease in long positions. The Pound Sterling (GBP) net longs have increased and the Mexican Peso (MXN) net longs have increased for the second week in a row, Rabobank FX analysts note. MXN net longs show a significant increase “USD net long positions have decreased for the second week in a row, driven by an increase in short positions as hopes for a September Fed rate cut are bolstered. On June 27th, personal consumption for Q1 was revised down from 2.0% to 1.5% and continuing jobless claims registered their highest level since November 2021.”

US Dollar (USD) net long positions have decreased for the second week in a row. The Euro (EUR) net short positions have increased, driven by a decrease in long positions. The Pound Sterling (GBP) net longs have increased and the Mexican Peso (MXN) net longs have increased for the second week in a row, Rabobank FX analysts note. MXN net longs show a significant increase “USD net long positions have decreased for the second week in a row, driven by an increase in short positions as hopes for a September Fed rate cut are bolstered. On June 27th, personal consumption for Q1 was revised down from 2.0% to 1.5% and continuing jobless claims registered their highest level since November 2021.”

The Greenback kicked off the week with decent gains, leaving behind some of the NFP-driven weakness and regaining some fresh traction in response to the broad-based knee-jerk in the risk complex. In the meantime, investors continued to digest the French snap elections and gradually shifted their attention to Powell’s semi-annual testimonies and key US data. Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, July 9: The USD Index (DXY) reclaimed the 105.00 barrier and above despite the move lower in US yields. The semi-annual testimony by Chair J. Powell to the Congress will be the salient event in the US docket on July 9. In addition, the Fed’s Barr and Bowman are also due to speak.

The Greenback kicked off the week with decent gains, leaving behind some of the NFP-driven weakness and regaining some fresh traction in response to the broad-based knee-jerk in the risk complex. In the meantime, investors continued to digest the French snap elections and gradually shifted their attention to Powell’s semi-annual testimonies and key US data. Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, July 9: The USD Index (DXY) reclaimed the 105.00 barrier and above despite the move lower in US yields. The semi-annual testimony by Chair J. Powell to the Congress will be the salient event in the US docket on July 9. In addition, the Fed’s Barr and Bowman are also due to speak.

The AUDUSD has been trying to extend to the upside over the last few trading days but has seen resistance even though new highs have been made. Today is another try. The price has extended above the high price from last weekend at 0.6838. Also, it has moved above the August high price at 0.6823.

The AUDUSD has been trying to extend to the upside over the last few trading days but has seen resistance even though new highs have been made. Today is another try. The price has extended above the high price from last weekend at 0.6838. Also, it has moved above the August high price at 0.6823.

The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped sharply from 47.5 in June to 41.8 in July, missing the market expectations of 42.5. The Current Situation Index, however, improved from -73.8 in June to -68.9 in the same month. The market forecast was for -74.3 in the reported period. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 43.7 in July, lower than the June reading of 51.3. The data missed the estimates of 48.1. Key points The economic outlook is worsening. For the first time in a year, economic expectations for Germany are falling. The fact that German exports decreased more than expected in May, the political uncertainty in France and the lack of clarity regarding the future monetary policy by the ECB have contributed to this development. Market reaction The EUR/USD pair is unfazed by the mixed German and Eurozone ZEW surveys. The pair is almost unchanged on the day at around 1.0900, at the press time.

The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped sharply from 47.5 in June to 41.8 in July, missing the market expectations of 42.5. The Current Situation Index, however, improved from -73.8 in June to -68.9 in the same month. The market forecast was for -74.3 in the reported period. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 43.7 in July, lower than the June reading of 51.3. The data missed the estimates of 48.1. Key points The economic outlook is worsening. For the first time in a year, economic expectations for Germany are falling. The fact that German exports decreased more than expected in May, the political uncertainty in France and the lack of clarity regarding the future monetary policy by the ECB have contributed to this development. Market reaction The EUR/USD pair is unfazed by the mixed German and Eurozone ZEW surveys. The pair is almost unchanged on the day at around 1.0900, at the press time.

The price did move above the 1.3338 and the price did move to the swing area high going back to 2021 and 2022 up to 1.3358. The high price reached 1.33585. The buyers could not take the price above that 1.3358 level. Buyers were seller instead and have now pushed the price back to the 1.3338 level.

The price did move above the 1.3338 and the price did move to the swing area high going back to 2021 and 2022 up to 1.3358. The high price reached 1.33585. The buyers could not take the price above that 1.3358 level. Buyers were seller instead and have now pushed the price back to the 1.3338 level.

The USDCHF has extended to the downside after holding the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August high at 0.85172. As outlined in the video from earlier today, if the price could get below the cluster of MAs defined by the 100/200 hour MAs and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart between 0.8475 to 0.8478, it would give the sellers more control. .

The USDCHF has extended to the downside after holding the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August high at 0.85172. As outlined in the video from earlier today, if the price could get below the cluster of MAs defined by the 100/200 hour MAs and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart between 0.8475 to 0.8478, it would give the sellers more control. .

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 114,000 in July, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 179,000 increase (revised from 206,000) recorded in June and fell short of the market expectation of 175,000. Follow our live coverage of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data and the market reaction. Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3% from 4.1% in June, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.7% from 62.6%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.6% from 3.8% in the same period.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 114,000 in July, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 179,000 increase (revised from 206,000) recorded in June and fell short of the market expectation of 175,000. Follow our live coverage of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data and the market reaction. Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3% from 4.1% in June, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.7% from 62.6%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.6% from 3.8% in the same period.

EUR/USD resumed its decline and returned to the sub-1.0800 region on the back of the generalized risk aversion sentiment. There are no data releases scheduled in the euro zone on August 2. GBP/USD suffered the strong pick-up in the Greenback and retreated to four-week lows despite the cautious rate cut by the BoE. On August 2, the BoE’s Chief Economist H. Pill is due to speak. A volatile session left USD/JPY lingering around the 150.00 neighbourhood amidst the risk-off trade and declining US and Japanese yields. The Japanese calendar is empty on August 2. There seems to be no respite for the rout in AUD/USD, which sharply reversed Wednesday’s bullish attempt and refocused on the 0.6500 region once again. Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes are expected in Oz on August 2 along with Producer Prices in Q2. WTI prices partially faded Wednesday’s strong uptick on the back of US recession concerns and the stronger US Dollar. The commodity revisited the $77.00 mark per barrel following tops near the $79.00 region.

EUR/USD resumed its decline and returned to the sub-1.0800 region on the back of the generalized risk aversion sentiment. There are no data releases scheduled in the euro zone on August 2. GBP/USD suffered the strong pick-up in the Greenback and retreated to four-week lows despite the cautious rate cut by the BoE. On August 2, the BoE’s Chief Economist H. Pill is due to speak. A volatile session left USD/JPY lingering around the 150.00 neighbourhood amidst the risk-off trade and declining US and Japanese yields. The Japanese calendar is empty on August 2. There seems to be no respite for the rout in AUD/USD, which sharply reversed Wednesday’s bullish attempt and refocused on the 0.6500 region once again. Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes are expected in Oz on August 2 along with Producer Prices in Q2. WTI prices partially faded Wednesday’s strong uptick on the back of US recession concerns and the stronger US Dollar. The commodity revisited the $77.00 mark per barrel following tops near the $79.00 region.

The price of crude oil futures are settling down -$0.63 or -0.89% at $70.37. The low price for the day reached $69.52 while the high price was at $71.78. At session lows, the price is at its rising 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). The price rebound moved up to test its 100-hour moving average at $70.39.

The price of crude oil futures are settling down -$0.63 or -0.89% at $70.37. The low price for the day reached $69.52 while the high price was at $71.78. At session lows, the price is at its rising 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). The price rebound moved up to test its 100-hour moving average at $70.39.

EUR/USD added to Friday’s uptick and briefly surpassed the psychological 1.1000 barrier, losing some momentum afterwards. Retail Sales in the broader euro area and Germany’s Factory Orders are due on August 6, followed by S&P Global Construction PMI in Germany and the euro bloc. The intense sell-off in risk-related assets sparked a knee-jerk in GBP/USD, which once again revisited the vicinity of 1.2700. On August 6, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor and the S&P Global Construction PMI will be unveiled. The increasing risk aversion favoured further JPY-buying on Monday, thus sending USD/JPY briefly below the 142.00 region. Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings are expected on August 6. AUD/USD managed to reverse the initial pullback to 2024 lows near 0.6350, regaining the 0.6500 hurdle and beyond afterwards. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged on August 6.

EUR/USD added to Friday’s uptick and briefly surpassed the psychological 1.1000 barrier, losing some momentum afterwards. Retail Sales in the broader euro area and Germany’s Factory Orders are due on August 6, followed by S&P Global Construction PMI in Germany and the euro bloc. The intense sell-off in risk-related assets sparked a knee-jerk in GBP/USD, which once again revisited the vicinity of 1.2700. On August 6, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor and the S&P Global Construction PMI will be unveiled. The increasing risk aversion favoured further JPY-buying on Monday, thus sending USD/JPY briefly below the 142.00 region. Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings are expected on August 6. AUD/USD managed to reverse the initial pullback to 2024 lows near 0.6350, regaining the 0.6500 hurdle and beyond afterwards. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged on August 6.

Gains above 1.0940/50 to see spot progress towards 1.10+. “The Euro (EUR) is marginally firmer on the session but holding well within recent ranges. Flows, technicals and external factors are the key drivers for the EUR as well in the short run.” “Despite trading well off from last week’s high, broader spot trends still look relatively bullish for the EUR. Near-term trends are flat, however, and the EUR needs to pick up a bit more ground again—soon—to reinvigorate bullish underlying trends.”

Gains above 1.0940/50 to see spot progress towards 1.10+. “The Euro (EUR) is marginally firmer on the session but holding well within recent ranges. Flows, technicals and external factors are the key drivers for the EUR as well in the short run.” “Despite trading well off from last week’s high, broader spot trends still look relatively bullish for the EUR. Near-term trends are flat, however, and the EUR needs to pick up a bit more ground again—soon—to reinvigorate bullish underlying trends.”

The EUR/USD pair loses momentum around 1.1120, snapping the three-day winning streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The cautious mood in the markets ahead of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes meeting minutes on Wednesday provides some support for the Greenback. The FOMC kept the Federal Funds rate unchanged between 5.25%-5.50% at its July meeting. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that a rate cut could be on the table if inflation continues to ease. The dovish tone of the meeting drags the Greenback lower in the previous sessions. However, the cautious mood ahead of the key event boosts the safe-haven currency like the US Dollar (USD) and creates a headwind for EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD pair loses momentum around 1.1120, snapping the three-day winning streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The cautious mood in the markets ahead of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes meeting minutes on Wednesday provides some support for the Greenback. The FOMC kept the Federal Funds rate unchanged between 5.25%-5.50% at its July meeting. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that a rate cut could be on the table if inflation continues to ease. The dovish tone of the meeting drags the Greenback lower in the previous sessions. However, the cautious mood ahead of the key event boosts the safe-haven currency like the US Dollar (USD) and creates a headwind for EUR/USD.

The price of gold hit its highest ever on Monday, and UBS is looking for higher to come. Anal 1. The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis-point rate cut has boosted enthusiasm for gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. This is expected to be the start of a larger easing cycle, with an additional 50 basis points of cuts likely in 2024 and 100 basis points in 2025. Lower interest rates may push investors toward gold as returns on cash decrease.

The price of gold hit its highest ever on Monday, and UBS is looking for higher to come. Anal 1. The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis-point rate cut has boosted enthusiasm for gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. This is expected to be the start of a larger easing cycle, with an additional 50 basis points of cuts likely in 2024 and 100 basis points in 2025. Lower interest rates may push investors toward gold as returns on cash decrease.

Forex Today: Lack of enthusiasm points to some consolidation NEWS | 08/27/2024 17:57:41 GMT | By Pablo Piovano There was no joy for the Greenback on Tuesday, as sellers regained control amidst a generalized absence of fervour among market participants prior to the release of key US data later in the week. The British pound outperformed its peers of the risk-linked galaxy on the back of a persistently restrictive stance from the BoE. Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, August 28: The US Dollar Index (DXY) rapidly left behind Monday’s advance and refocused on the downside, where recent YTD lows sit. The MBA’s weekly Mortgage Applications results are due on August 28, seconded by the EIA’s report on US crude oil inventories and the speech by FOMC’s Waller.

Forex Today: Lack of enthusiasm points to some consolidation NEWS | 08/27/2024 17:57:41 GMT | By Pablo Piovano There was no joy for the Greenback on Tuesday, as sellers regained control amidst a generalized absence of fervour among market participants prior to the release of key US data later in the week. The British pound outperformed its peers of the risk-linked galaxy on the back of a persistently restrictive stance from the BoE. Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, August 28: The US Dollar Index (DXY) rapidly left behind Monday’s advance and refocused on the downside, where recent YTD lows sit. The MBA’s weekly Mortgage Applications results are due on August 28, seconded by the EIA’s report on US crude oil inventories and the speech by FOMC’s Waller.

In the year to date, the Euro (EUR) is the second best performing G10 currency. This appears out of kilter with Germany’s struggling economy, which is in danger of falling back into technical recession in Q3, Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes. The value of EUR/USD continues its ascent “Although some models suggest that at current levels, EUR is undervalued vs. the USD, the Eurozone’s real effective exchange rate is trading comfortably off its post pandemic low and around the middle of the range maintained since the single currency’s inception.”

In the year to date, the Euro (EUR) is the second best performing G10 currency. This appears out of kilter with Germany’s struggling economy, which is in danger of falling back into technical recession in Q3, Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes. The value of EUR/USD continues its ascent “Although some models suggest that at current levels, EUR is undervalued vs. the USD, the Eurozone’s real effective exchange rate is trading comfortably off its post pandemic low and around the middle of the range maintained since the single currency’s inception.”

The headline jobless rate has not disappointed. And the headline employment addition appears very strong indeed, once again. The shine will be subdued somewhat by the loss of full-time employment, all jobs added in the month were part-time (part-time employment rose by 50,600).

The headline jobless rate has not disappointed. And the headline employment addition appears very strong indeed, once again. The shine will be subdued somewhat by the loss of full-time employment, all jobs added in the month were part-time (part-time employment rose by 50,600).

Monday, 14 October at 9.15am Governor Adrian Orr will speak about improving Māori access to capital Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 11am Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will speak about financial stability Wednesday, 16 October 2024 at 9.45am – 10.25am, Sydney time- 11.45am NZ time Assistant Governor Karen Silk (General Manager Economics, Financial Markets and Banking, Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will speak to the Citi Investment conference.

Monday, 14 October at 9.15am Governor Adrian Orr will speak about improving Māori access to capital Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 11am Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will speak about financial stability Wednesday, 16 October 2024 at 9.45am – 10.25am, Sydney time- 11.45am NZ time Assistant Governor Karen Silk (General Manager Economics, Financial Markets and Banking, Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will speak to the Citi Investment conference.

The Pound Sterling has reached its highest levels in several months against both the Euro and the US Dollar this week. This strength is partly due to recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Bailey stated that while he expects interest rates in Britain to fall, the progress will be slow. He also emphasized that the bank rate will not return to the near-zero levels seen during the crisis unless another crisis occurs. He told Kent Online: "I think the path of interest rates will be down, gradually." When asked if British households would see interest rates near zero again, Bailey said he "doesn't expect" that "what caused interest rates to go up so much was, among other things, two very big shocks to the economy." He adds, saying: "It all started with the financial crisis and then Covid was another big shock." Commenting on this, forex analyst Brad Bechtel at investment bank Jefferies says Bailey is indicating "that he doesn't see a return to very low interest rates in this cycle and that has also helped support the pound a bit." According to forex trading, the GBP/EUR exchange rate rose to its highest level in more than two years, exceeding 1.20 amid expectations that interest rates in the UK will be cut more slowly than those in the eurozone. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD exchange rate is testing levels near 1.34 as US interest rates start to decline, with the Federal Reserve delivering a massive 50 basis point cut last week. For its part, the bank said last week that it believes inflation risks remain and that a gradual approach to easing is appropriate. As long as the UK is on a slow track when it comes to cutting interest rates, the pound can maintain its upward momentum. According to analysts: “So far, the pound has outperformed other currencies on the margins, and is likely to remain in a better position against currencies such as the euro, the Japanese yen, and sometimes the US dollar, for the foreseeable future.”

The Pound Sterling has reached its highest levels in several months against both the Euro and the US Dollar this week. This strength is partly due to recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Bailey stated that while he expects interest rates in Britain to fall, the progress will be slow. He also emphasized that the bank rate will not return to the near-zero levels seen during the crisis unless another crisis occurs. He told Kent Online: "I think the path of interest rates will be down, gradually." When asked if British households would see interest rates near zero again, Bailey said he "doesn't expect" that "what caused interest rates to go up so much was, among other things, two very big shocks to the economy." He adds, saying: "It all started with the financial crisis and then Covid was another big shock." Commenting on this, forex analyst Brad Bechtel at investment bank Jefferies says Bailey is indicating "that he doesn't see a return to very low interest rates in this cycle and that has also helped support the pound a bit." According to forex trading, the GBP/EUR exchange rate rose to its highest level in more than two years, exceeding 1.20 amid expectations that interest rates in the UK will be cut more slowly than those in the eurozone. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD exchange rate is testing levels near 1.34 as US interest rates start to decline, with the Federal Reserve delivering a massive 50 basis point cut last week. For its part, the bank said last week that it believes inflation risks remain and that a gradual approach to easing is appropriate. As long as the UK is on a slow track when it comes to cutting interest rates, the pound can maintain its upward momentum. According to analysts: “So far, the pound has outperformed other currencies on the margins, and is likely to remain in a better position against currencies such as the euro, the Japanese yen, and sometimes the US dollar, for the foreseeable future.”