#交易商测評 #大神幫我看 #ForexEliteSelection #FTP It should be emphasized that the foreign exchange market is constantly changing, and the following analysis is based on the recent (as of early June 2024) market logic and cannot be used as direct investment advice. You must check the latest data and updates before trading.The core factors currently affecting the rise and fall of the foreign exchange market can be summarized as follows: "The strong US dollar is dominant, major currencies are experiencing differentiation, and geopolitical variables are added.1、 Core theme: Can the "king status" of the US dollar continue?The Dollar Index (DXY) is a key indicator for measuring the strength of the US dollar, which has been fluctuating at high levels recently and has shown strong performance. This is mainly driven by the following factors:Supported by a high interest rate environment:The Federal Reserve's' higher, longer 'stance: Despite market expectations that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates, the timing of its initiation has been repeatedly postponed. The stickiness of US inflation and the resilience of the job market have led Federal Reserve officials to adopt a hawkish stance. This makes the attractiveness of US dollar assets continue to exist.Interest rate advantage: The interest rate level in the United States is much higher than other major developed economies such as the eurozone and Japan. Investors tend to invest their funds in the United States with higher interest rates, thereby driving demand for the US dollar.Boosting risk aversion:Global geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East) and global economic uncertainty have highlighted the position of the US dollar as the world's preferred safe haven asset. When the market panics, funds will flood into the US dollar.Future Focus: Whether the strength of the US dollar can be sustained depends on:US inflation and economic data: If inflation significantly falls or the job market becomes noticeably weak, market expectations of a Fed rate cut may rise, putting pressure on the US dollar.The performance of other major economies: If economies such as Europe and the UK show stronger recovery momentum and the need for interest rate hikes, the relative advantage of the US dollar will weaken.2、 The differentiation pattern of major currency pairs1. Euro/USD - Trapped by economic weakness vs. political risksBearish factors:Economic stagnation: The Eurozone's economic growth is sluggish, especially with manufacturing giants such as Germany facing difficulties.Expectation of early interest rate cut: The European Central Bank has hinted that it will start cutting interest rates in June, which will narrow the spread with the US dollar and be unfavorable for the euro.Political uncertainty: With the upcoming European Parliament elections, the rise of right-wing forces has brought about political uncertainty.Current situation: The euro is under pressure against the US dollar, hovering around 1.07 and prone to decline but difficult to rise.2. GBP/USD - sandwiched in the middleSituation: The economic and inflation situation in the UK is between that of the United States and the Eurozone. The pace of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England is expected to be later than that of the European Central Bank, but earlier or synchronized with the Federal Reserve.Trend: The trend of the pound is relatively uncertain, on the one hand, it is suppressed by the strong US dollar, and on the other hand, its interest rate advantage is slightly better than the euro, making its performance slightly stronger than the euro.3. USD/JPY - the most typical "spread trading" targetReason for the surge:Huge interest rate spread: Although the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, it still maintains a super loose monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, resulting in a huge interest rate spread between Japan and the United States. Investors generally borrow low interest Japanese yen and exchange it for US dollars to invest in high-yield assets.Japanese authorities intervene: When the depreciation of the Japanese yuan is too fast or too strong (such as hitting the 160 mark), the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervenes by buying Japanese yen and selling US dollars, causing short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.Current situation: The USD/JPY is at a decades high (157+), and its future trend depends entirely on the game between the "US Japan interest rate differential" and "Japanese intervention".4. Commodity currency (Australian dollar AUD, Canadian dollar CAD, New Zealand dollar NZD)Trend logic: highly correlated with commodity prices and global economic prospects.When the market is optimistic about the global (especially Chinese) economy, they strengthen.When the market is safe haven or concerned about demand, they weaken.Current situation: The recent signs of economic recovery in China have provided support
#交易商测評 #大神幫我看 #ForexEliteSelection #FTP It should be emphasized that the foreign exchange market is constantly changing, and the following analysis is based on the recent (as of early June 2024) market logic and cannot be used as direct investment advice. You must check the latest data and updates before trading.The core factors currently affecting the rise and fall of the foreign exchange market can be summarized as follows: "The strong US dollar is dominant, major currencies are experiencing differentiation, and geopolitical variables are added.1、 Core theme: Can the "king status" of the US dollar continue?The Dollar Index (DXY) is a key indicator for measuring the strength of the US dollar, which has been fluctuating at high levels recently and has shown strong performance. This is mainly driven by the following factors:Supported by a high interest rate environment:The Federal Reserve's' higher, longer 'stance: Despite market expectations that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates, the timing of its initiation has been repeatedly postponed. The stickiness of US inflation and the resilience of the job market have led Federal Reserve officials to adopt a hawkish stance. This makes the attractiveness of US dollar assets continue to exist.Interest rate advantage: The interest rate level in the United States is much higher than other major developed economies such as the eurozone and Japan. Investors tend to invest their funds in the United States with higher interest rates, thereby driving demand for the US dollar.Boosting risk aversion:Global geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East) and global economic uncertainty have highlighted the position of the US dollar as the world's preferred safe haven asset. When the market panics, funds will flood into the US dollar.Future Focus: Whether the strength of the US dollar can be sustained depends on:US inflation and economic data: If inflation significantly falls or the job market becomes noticeably weak, market expectations of a Fed rate cut may rise, putting pressure on the US dollar.The performance of other major economies: If economies such as Europe and the UK show stronger recovery momentum and the need for interest rate hikes, the relative advantage of the US dollar will weaken.2、 The differentiation pattern of major currency pairs1. Euro/USD - Trapped by economic weakness vs. political risksBearish factors:Economic stagnation: The Eurozone's economic growth is sluggish, especially with manufacturing giants such as Germany facing difficulties.Expectation of early interest rate cut: The European Central Bank has hinted that it will start cutting interest rates in June, which will narrow the spread with the US dollar and be unfavorable for the euro.Political uncertainty: With the upcoming European Parliament elections, the rise of right-wing forces has brought about political uncertainty.Current situation: The euro is under pressure against the US dollar, hovering around 1.07 and prone to decline but difficult to rise.2. GBP/USD - sandwiched in the middleSituation: The economic and inflation situation in the UK is between that of the United States and the Eurozone. The pace of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England is expected to be later than that of the European Central Bank, but earlier or synchronized with the Federal Reserve.Trend: The trend of the pound is relatively uncertain, on the one hand, it is suppressed by the strong US dollar, and on the other hand, its interest rate advantage is slightly better than the euro, making its performance slightly stronger than the euro.3. USD/JPY - the most typical "spread trading" targetReason for the surge:Huge interest rate spread: Although the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, it still maintains a super loose monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, resulting in a huge interest rate spread between Japan and the United States. Investors generally borrow low interest Japanese yen and exchange it for US dollars to invest in high-yield assets.Japanese authorities intervene: When the depreciation of the Japanese yuan is too fast or too strong (such as hitting the 160 mark), the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervenes by buying Japanese yen and selling US dollars, causing short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.Current situation: The USD/JPY is at a decades high (157+), and its future trend depends entirely on the game between the "US Japan interest rate differential" and "Japanese intervention".4. Commodity currency (Australian dollar AUD, Canadian dollar CAD, New Zealand dollar NZD)Trend logic: highly correlated with commodity prices and global economic prospects.When the market is optimistic about the global (especially Chinese) economy, they strengthen.When the market is safe haven or concerned about demand, they weaken.Current situation: The recent signs of economic recovery in China have provided support
