EUR/GBP: Is a Bullish Breakout Coming？

Euro / British Pound Long yesterday 1 Grab this chart Grab this chart 4 4 67 EUR/GBP is currently trading around 0.8578, and I believe the pair is approaching an interesting decision point. After reaching the 0.8460–0.8480 area in July, EUR/GBP produced a strong reaction and has since recovered into the current consolidation. Technical Structure Price is currently consolidating roughly between 0.8531 and 0.8585. What catches my attention is the inability of sellers to generate another meaningful bearish expansion after the July low. Instead, price has started building a base above the lows. For this reason, my preferred scenario is a breakout above the 0.8585 resistance area, followed ideally by a retest and bullish confirmation. If EUR/GBP eventually manages to break and hold above this area, the market could open the door toward approximately 0.8730–0.8745. Retail positioning adds another interesting piece to the puzzle. 63% SHORT 37% LONG There are roughly 4,133 short positions versus 2,408 long positions. I use retail positioning primarily as a contrarian indicator rather than as a standalone entry signal. Seasonality Is Bullish Historical August performance for EUR/GBP is positive across four of the five periods I am monitoring: 20 Years: +0.0046 15 Years: +0.0058 10 Years: +0.0036 5 Years: +0.0040 2 Years: -0.0016 COT Data Euro non-commercial positioning currently shows approximately: 196,241 Long 255,329 Short Net: -59,088 For GBP: 77,343 Long 131,916 Short Net: -54,573 Both currencies therefore remain net short among non-commercial participants, with no major relative divergence strong enough for me to establish a clear institutional directional bias on EUR/GBP. My EUR/GBP Scenario Putting everything together, my current bias is moderately bullish, but conditional. I do not want to buy simply because EUR/GBP is consolidating near the lows. I want the market to confirm my idea. The sequence I am watching is: 0.8535–0.8590 consolidation → bullish breakout → retest/confirmation → 0.8635–0.8690 target area. The combination of bullish seasonality, contrarian retail sentiment and the reaction from the July lows makes the upside scenario attractive.