Escalating Policy Battles and the Corporate Rush for Refund Windows

U.S. politics, tariffs, AI regulation, and monetary policy are converging into a dense cluster of critical policy signals this week. Former President Trump not only hinted that the Supreme Court may strike down his proposed reciprocal tariffs, but also revealed that a “Plan B” is already prepared. Meanwhile, major U.S. corporations are racing against the deadline to file lawsuits seeking potentially more than $100 billion in tariff refunds.

At the same time, the Trump administration is preparing an executive order to unify AI governance across states and continues to emphasize that inflation is “under control.” Kevin Hassett—often described as the “shadow Fed chair”—further elaborated on interest-rate prospects and the economic outlook, drawing heightened market attention.

Trump‘s recent social-media posts suggested he anticipates the Supreme Court may invalidate the administration’s reciprocal tariff framework. However, he stressed that alternative legal pathways are ready to preserve the tariff structure, injecting renewed uncertainty into the policy outlook.

In parallel, a wave of U.S. companies—Costco among them—has filed lawsuits in an effort to secure eligibility for potentially massive tariff refunds before the liquidation deadline. Yet legal scholars caution that even if the courts rule the tariffs unlawful, the Supreme Court is unlikely to compel the federal government to repay them. U.S. officials have openly stated, “Refunds will not happen,” signaling a firm federal stance.

This has created a tense three-way standoff between corporations, the courts, and the administrative branch.

The Trump administration is also set to sign a federal executive order this week establishing unified national AI governance. The core intent is to prevent states from introducing their own AI rules, which could force companies to comply with a patchwork of inconsistent standards.

Trump stated: “If we want to stay ahead in AI, there can only be one rulebook.”

He criticized the existing system, saying companies should not need approval from 50 different states each time they expand operations—framing state-level regulations as a barrier to innovation. The initiative also reflects Washingtons ambition to reassert federal leadership in AI and reduce regulatory fragmentation as global AI competition intensifies.

Trump reiterated that his administration has “largely solved” the inflation issue and expects inflation to “decline modestly going forward.” He rejected the prospect of deflation, blaming the previous Biden administration for leaving behind an inflation “mess,” and describing current economic pressures as “inherited.” Although the statement aims to reinforce policy credibility during the early stages of the rate-cut cycle, markets remain cautious about the inflation trajectory.

Across tariffs, AI regulation, inflation narratives, and monetary policy, the U.S. is entering a period of unusually dense policy inflection points:

• Tariff litigation: Facing judicial scrutiny, while the administration prepares counter-measures

• Corporate actions: Large firms racing to secure potential refund claims

• AI regulation: Clear shift toward federal centralization

• Economic policy: Inflation outlook and rate-path expectations remain uncertain

• Financial markets: Highly sensitive to comments from Hassett and other policy influencers

These intertwined forces may significantly elevate the policy risk environment and market volatility in the coming months.

Gold Technical Analysis

On the H1 timeframe, gold surged toward $4,250 before rapidly reversing lower, forming a classic false breakout with a long upper wick. Market sentiment flipped from bullish to bearish, followed by a decisive breakdown below key moving-average support—confirming a clear momentum shift.

• Rebounds capped below $4,200 → bearish bias remains

• Break below $4,150 → signals bearish continuation

• Only a sustained move back above $4,200 would open the door to consolidation, though $4,250 remains strong resistance.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $4,250/oz

• Support: $4,200 and $4,150/oz

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