ASML shares drop 6.5% after the chip giant says it can't confirm that it will grow in 2026

• ASML reported net sales of 7.7 billion euros ($8.95 billion) in the second quarter, ahead of estimates.
• However, the company said it cannot confirm that it will grow in 2026.
• ASML is one of the most critical semiconductor supply chain companies in the world.

ASML on Wednesday warned of the possibility of no growth in 2026, even as it beat top and bottom line expectations for the second quarter.

ASML's guidance for the current quarter missed expectations while it narrowed its own forecast for the rest of the year.

Shares of ASML dropped 6.5% in early trading, shortly after European markets opened.

Like many companies in the semiconductor industry, ASML has been grappling with uncertainty created by U.S. tariff policy.

The company forecast third-quarter revenue of between 7.4 billion euros and 7.9 billion euros, which was shy of market expectations of 8.3 billion euros.

ASML said it expects full-year 2025 net sales to grow 15%, narrowing its guidance from a previously announced forecasts of between 30 billion euros to 35 billion euros. That growth number would imply 2025 revenue of 32.5 billion.

However, the Dutch tech giant was less certain about the outlook for 2026.

“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers' fundamentals remain strong,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement.

“At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”

AI driving growth

For the current quarter, ASML beat analyst estimates on top and bottom line and on the key net bookings figure.

Here's how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the second quarter:

• Net sales: 7.7 billion euros ($8.95 billion) versus 7.52 billion euros expected
• Net profit: 2.29 billion euros vs 2.04 billion euros expected

In its own previous forecast issued in April, ASML had said it expected second-quarter net sales of between 7.2 billion euros and 7.7 billion euros. In a pre-recorded interview posted on ASML's website, the company's Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said the beat was due to revenue from upgrading currently deployed machines as well as tariffs having a “less negative” impact than anticipated.

Analysts anticipated net bookings — a key indicator of order demand — would come in at 4.19 billion euros over the April-June stretch. ASML reported net bookings of 5.5 billion euros.

ASML is one of the most important semiconductor supply chain companies in the world. It makes extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, which are required to manufacture the most advanced chips in the world, such as those designed by Apple and Nvidia.

Companies like Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. are customers of ASML.

ASML has benefitted from demand related to chips required for artificial intelligence. Dassen said that this AI demand is “a big driver for EUV.”

The Veldhoven, Netherlands-headquartered company has released its next generation EUV tools known as High NA, which stands for high numerical aperture. These machines, which are larger than a double-decker bus and can cost more than $400 million each, are key to ASML's future growth plans.

ASML said it shipped one High NA tool in the second quarter.