KVB Market Analysis | 9 Oct: RBNZ Policy Shift Signals NZD/USD Downtrend Amid Fed Rate Cut Impact

Product: XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Spot Gold remains on a modest downward trend, hovering near $2,645 after the US market opened. While shedding ground recently, XAU/USD is still well below its September high of $2,685.45. Despite the US Dollars strength, Gold continues to attract investors, driven by strong US economic data and diminished expectations for significant Federal Reserve rate cuts. Simultaneously, mounting tensions in the Middle East sustain its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, tech sector losses have weighed on stock markets, further supporting Gold's stability.

Technical Analysis:

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is in a consolidative phase, still developing above all its moving averages in the daily chart. Even further, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a sharp upward slope far above the longer ones while providing dynamic support at around $2,620. At the same time, the Momentum indicator is flat well above its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims marginally lower at around 61, none of them enough to support a steeper decline.

Product: EUR/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair keeps trading within familiar levels on Tuesday, meeting sellers ahead of the 1.1000 mark. The Euro received little to no attention despite encouraging German data, as the country released August Industrial Production, which rose by 2.9% in the month, much better than the 0.8% anticipated by market players. Compared to a year earlier, however, Industrial Production declined by 2.7%, still better than the previous -5.3%.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD pair is battling a daily ascendant trend line broken at the beginning of the week. The line acts as dynamic resistance, a handful of pips above the current level, with near-term spikes beyond it being quickly rejected by sellers. The daily chart shows that technical indicators have lost their directional strength but consolidate within negative levels without signs of a potential recovery underway. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads marginally higher above the current level, while a flat 100 SMA provides support at around 1.0930.

Product: NZD/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

According to the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), the committee assesses that annual consumer price inflation is within its 1 to 3% inflation target range. The Committee agreed that it is appropriate to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to achieve and maintain low and stable inflation while seeking to avoid unnecessary instability in output, employment, interest rates, and the exchange rate, noted the RBNZ MPS. Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday the US central bank's 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in September was aimed at keeping the labor market strong even as inflation continues to ease, per Reuters.

Technical Analysis:

The New Zealand Dollar weakens on the day. The NZD/USD pair continues its downtrend as it crosses below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is poised to break below the ascending trend channel on the daily chart. The downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 41.10, supporting the sellers in the near term. A decisive break below the lower limit of the trend channel of 0.6135 could pave the way to the 0.6000 psychological level. Sustained trading below this level could lead to a drop towards 0.5974, the low of August 15.

Product: ETH/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Ethereum leads ‘overvalued’ Solana in several key metrics, according to Standard Chartered analysts. The bank noted that Ethereum could rally to $7,000 under a Harris administration and $10,000 under Trump. Ethereum bounced off the support level near $2,400 as it attempts to tackle the $2,490 resistance. Additionally, the bank lowered its 2025 year-end ETH forecast, predicting the top altcoin to see a new all-time high of $7,000 under the Harris administration and $10,000 under Trump. This is almost 50% lower than its previous prediction of ETH reaching $14,000 by the end of 2025.

Technical Analysis:

Ethereum trades around $2,430 on Tuesday, following $18.93 million liquidations in its derivatives market — with long and short liquidations accounting for $10.89 million and $8.04 million, respectively, per Coinglass data. ETH bounced off a support near the $2,400 psychological level and is attempting to move toward a rectangle resistance at $2,490. However, it has to clear a barrier near the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). A successful move above the $2,490 resistance could send ETH toward $2,596.