China's Yuan Hits Six-Year Low as Central Bank Stands Firm

News Summary: The Chinese yuan plummeted to its lowest value against the US dollar in more than six years on Monday, signaling the central bank's reluctance to intervene despite ongoing depreciation pressures.

News Lead:

Beijing's central bank allowed the yuan to drop to 6.7396 per dollar on Monday afternoon, reflecting a 1% decline since late September, as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) refrains from significant market intervention amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

The Yuan's Decline

The yuan's depreciation signals a retreat from its previous stability, which had been maintained around the 6.67 mark in September. This drop comes following the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) inclusion of the yuan in its special drawing rights basket, an event that some analysts believe led Beijing to display the currency's strength beforehand. However, the current descent indicates that the PBOC is willing to tolerate some instability in a bid to promote market forces over direct intervention.

As the central bank remains passive, the currency's value against the dollar has raised concerns among investors, who are responding to various economic challenges facing China—such as a stuttering economy, widened interest rate differentials globally, and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly with the United States.

Economic Context and Factors Influencing Yuan Performance

The yuan's decline must be viewed within the context of a broader slowing Chinese economy that had anticipated a rebound after the release from zero-COVID policies. Instead, it has shown sluggish growth, with expectations for a mere 5% growth target for 2023 now appearing pessimistically ambitious. This backdrop of underwhelming economic performance constrains the appeal of the yuan for foreign and domestic investors alike.

Several key factors have contributed to the yuan's decline:

• Interest Rate Disparity: The People's Bank of China has cut interest rates several times in 2023 to stimulate borrowing and investment, contrasting sharply with the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy. This discrepancy has made US assets more attractive, leading to capital outflows from China.
• Weak Export Performance: Exports, traditionally a major growth driver for the Chinese economy, have dropped significantly, with reports showing a decline of 14.5% in July alone. This slowdown reduces demand for the yuan, contributing to its downward pressure.
• Investor Sentiment and Geopolitical Tensions: Increasing fears of geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Taiwan and U.S.-China relations, have added uncertainty to the yuan's performance. Many investors are adopting a cautious stance, further exacerbating selling pressure on the currency.
• State Interventions: Despite the apparent pacification from the central bank, there have been interventions in the foreign exchange markets, including the setting of a stronger midpoint rate for the yuan than the market predicted. This action reveals a signal of discomfort with the yuan's rapid decline.

Central Bank's Stance: Balancing Growth Amidst Weakness

The PBOCs recent measures include cutting the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions, aiming to pump liquidity into the market and stabilize the yuan by reducing upward pressure on the dollar. Analysts note that these adjustments, while providing temporary relief, may not suffice in reversing the trend of depreciation.

The authorities are keenly aware of the psychological threshold around the 7-per-dollar mark, reiterating a commitment to maintain a “stable, reasonable and balanced” exchange rate while cautioning against excessive speculation. They are also employing steps to guide state-owned banks to manage their dollar positions carefully and reduce volatility within foreign exchange transactions.

Conclusion: A Complex Outlook for the Yuan and China's Economy

As the yuan navigates through unsteady waters, stakeholders remain watchful of both local and global economic indicators. The modest expectations for recovery and the delicate balance of managing the currency's value against a backdrop of falling exports and increasing capital outflows create a complex environment for the PBOC.

Going forward, foreign investors and market experts will closely monitor the PBOC's interventions, geopolitical tensions, and economic performances to ascertain the future trajectory of the yuan. With the U.S. economy showing signs of sustained recovery, versus China's impending struggles, a continued depreciation of the yuan would align with the broader economic trends, albeit with significant ramifications for Chinas import costs and export competitiveness.

Sources:

• Nikkei Asia: China's central bank stands by as yuan plumbs six-year low
• Reuters: China's measures to slow yuan depreciation
• Barron's: [Yuan Depreciation Is the Chinas Latest Problem in a Difficult Economic Year](https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-yuan-rmb-depreciation-economy