Today's analysis: USDJPY Poised for Increase Amid Bank of Japan's Strategy

Product: XAU/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

The price of gold briefly fell to $2315 but then bounced back to $2321. The Federal Reserve's latest forecast, announced last week, shows that the average prediction of 19 central bank officials is that there will be only one interest rate cut this year. Some officials think the rate cut might happen in December. Israel announced a temporary ceasefire to allow aid but said they will continue their attacks in Rafah. There are no important economic reports from the US this week to help clarify the Federal Reserve's future plans.

Technical Analysis: 

The gold prices are neutral to slightly negative. Momentum indicators show that sellers are gaining strength as the 14-RSI moves further into the bearish zone, which could lead to more price drops. If gold prices fall below $2,300, the first support level will be the low point of $2,277 on May 3, followed by the high point of $2,222 on March 21. If gold prices bounce back and surpass the high point of $2,387 on June 7, they could then test the $2,400 level.

Product: EUR/USD

Prediction:Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

On Monday, the only important data in the US economic calendar will be the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. However, investors are expected to pay more attention to what central bank officials say. If these officials hint at a possible rate cut later in the year, the USD might stay strong, putting pressure on the EUR/USD. But if they suggest they might change policy in September, the USD could weaken.

Technical Analysis: 

The EUR/USD exchange rate went up on Monday, continuing its rise from last Friday's low point of around $1.0670. It is still trading below the 200-hour EMA at $1.0770. Because it keeps making lower highs, there is a risk that it might keep falling. The daily charts show a strong downward trend after dropping from the 200-day EMA at $1.0803. Even though there is some positive momentum that might cause a bounce from below $1.0700, the pressure from the pattern of lower highs since December's peak near $1.1140 is making it difficult for the price to rise.

Product: USD/JPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

On the 14th, the Bank of Japan announced after its monetary policy meeting that it will keep its policy interest rate target unchanged between 0 and 0.1%. The Bank also said it will continue with the long-term government bond purchase plan set in March but will reduce bond purchases in the future and decide on a specific reduction plan in July. The Bank of Japan's Governor said they are closely watching the impact of the weak yen on inflation and may raise interest rates in July, depending on economic data. 

Technical Analysis: 

The USD/JPY is still going up, but Monday's trading shows that buyers are being careful because they worry about Japanese authorities stepping in. The next resistance level is $158.25, which was the high on June 17, followed by $158.44, the peak on April 26. On the other hand, if USD/JPY falls below $157.00, sellers might target important support levels. The first support level is $156.16, followed by $155.93.

Product:BTC/USD

Prediction:Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

In the five days since June 10, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw money flow out on four days. However, analysts say that long-term investors are not worrying and are still buying. The number of large wallets holding 10 or more Bitcoins has reached 16.6 million, the highest level since June 2022. Although Bitcoin looks weak in the short term, it is still within its range, and it is likely to see buying at the support level. The longer it stays in the range, the more strength it will take to break out of it.

Technical Analysis: 

Bitcoin couldn't bounce back from the 50-day moving average of $66,189, showing that sellers are still putting pressure on it. The key support level to watch now is $64,602. If it drops below this level, Bitcoin could fall to $60,000. If they want to make a comeback, they need to quickly push the price above the 20-day moving average of $67,612. If they succeed, Bitcoin could rise to $70,000.

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