Will Indian Economy Go Short?

According to the latest data of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's forex reserves have surged $11,938 million to a fresh all-time high of $534,568 million for the week ended July 31. Its forex reserves have seen sharp rise over the past few months as overseas investors pumped money into Indias stock markets.

Data source: RBI

However, the country‘s external debt shows an opposite scenario, dropping away from its forex reserves. As of March, its external debt has grown to $558.5 billion from the $474.4 billion five years ago. The ratio of external debt to forex reserves goes as high as 111.7%. By the end of 2019, India’s public debt has reached up to $1,170 billion, accounting for 250% of forex reserves.

Data source: tradingeconomics.com

Over the past decade, India‘s equity markets have been booming along with the strong momentum in economic growth. But the excessively heavy debt may put economic burden on enterprises and the government because India has a large population as a major developing country. The inverted trend mentioned above implies that India’s forex reserves seem to be very vulnerable.

Indias economy has been highly dependent on dollar liabilities for several years. Once the greenback disengages from India massively, the economy may suffer from near-term hit and surrender its wealth to the dollar capital at any time since global financial giants are going short. Investors should be alert to “black swan” events.

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