Global Markets Mixed as Gold Approaches $4,700 and Bitcoin Hovers Around $80,000

Key Takeaways

• US equities recovered toward the end of the week, supported by strong Nvidia earnings and renewed optimism around AI spending.

• Gold approached $4,700 before pulling back, as a weaker dollar and lower yields initially supported the precious metal.

• Silver and copper remained supported by strong demand, with both metals benefiting from industrial and structural trends.

• Bitcoin broke above $80,000, extending its recent rally as institutional ETF inflows, lower Treasury yields and renewed demand for scarce assets boosted sentiment.

• US PCE inflation remained sticky, with headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.3% year-on-year. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed may keep monetary policy restrictive.

• Next week‘s focus shifts to the US labor market, with Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data likely to play a major role in determining the Fed’s next move.

US Indices Recover, Supported by the AI Narrative

US equities recovered strongly toward the end of the week after coming under pressure earlier, particularly in technology stocks. The Nasdaq led the gains after Nvidia delivered stronger-than-expected earnings and an upbeat revenue outlook.

Nvidia became the week's main catalyst for equities. The company beat expectations and forecast strong revenue growth, sending its shares sharply higher and reviving confidence in the broader AI trade. Nvidia's gains helped lift the Nasdaq and S&P 500, although the rally remained relatively concentrated in technology stocks.

Bond yields also remained an important driver. The Treasury's intervention through increased long-duration bond buybacks helped pull yields lower, providing relief to equities. However, persistent inflation and uncertainty over Fed policy kept long-term yields elevated and limited the upside for stocks.

Gold, Silver and Copper Showed Bullish Momentum

Gold had another strong run, climbing to a 15-week high of around $4,697 earlier in the week before correcting toward the $4,580–$4,600 area. The rally was initially supported by a weaker US dollar, lower Treasury yields and the Treasury's expanded bond buyback program.

However, hot PCE inflation data and renewed expectations for a Fed rate hike put pressure on gold later in the week. The market is now pricing roughly a 40% probability of a September rate hike, up from around 36% before the PCE release.

Silver also remained strong but experienced some profit taking. The metal traded around was around $68–70 during the week.

Copper continued to benefit from strong structural demand and the AI/electrification theme. Prices reached around $6.61/lb, close to record levels.

Outlook for next week: 31 August – 4 September

The focus will shift from inflation to the US labor market, making next week potentially even more important for Fed expectations. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on Friday, September 4, alongside unemployment and wage data.

The key question is whether the labor market is strong enough to justify a Fed hike despite elevated inflation. Stronger than expected jobs and wage growth would reinforce the hawkish case, potentially pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher while weighing on gold and risk assets. Conversely, a weak employment report could revive expectations for a more accommodative Fed, supporting gold, equities and Bitcoin.

The week will also bring the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the ISM Services PMI, providing additional insight into economic momentum. The manufacturing report is scheduled for the first business day of the month, while services follows on the third business day.

For gold, the $4,700 area remains the major resistance after this week's failed attempt to sustain the breakout. A dovish interpretation of the Fed outlook could put $4,700 back in focus, while a hawkish shift could deepen the correction toward the $4,500–$4,520 area.

For Bitcoin, $80,000 is now the key psychological level. Holding above it would strengthen the bullish breakout and potentially open the door toward the $82,850–$85,000 region, while another rejection could send BTC back toward the mid-$70,000s.

Overall, next week's US jobs data will likely determine whether the recent rallies in gold, Bitcoin and equities can continue or whether markets enter a deeper correction. The combination of sticky inflation, elevated bond yields and an uncertain Fed policy path means volatility is likely to remain elevated.

Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week