Geopolitical Risk Reshapes Energy and Equity Markets: The 'Trump Playbook' in Focus

Global financial markets are experiencing high volatility driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, with focus shifting from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions to potential systemic supply shocks.

The 'Trump Playbook' and Market Expectations

Research by The Kobeissi Letter suggests markets are in the seventh stage of the Trump conflict playbook, characterized by conditional de-escalation signals following structural re-pricing of risks.

Data Snapshot

• JPMorgan forecasts Brent crude could reach $120–$130/barrel
• Potential impact on US CPI inflation is estimated at 5%

Investor Strategy

Investors are rotating out of Mega-cap stocks into sectors resilient to volatility. Despite pressure on the S&P 500, robust economic data persists.