DBG Markets: Market Report for Dec 09, 2025

RBA Takes Center Stage; Crypto Finds Footing Ahead of Central Bank Storm

RBA Outlook: The “Hawkish Hold” Divergence

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its rate decision today at 11:30 AM (GMT+8), serving as a key market driver. While the Fed is expected to cut rates this week, the RBA is widely anticipated to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%.

As this analysis was prepared prior to the meeting, live outcomes are not yet available. Based on forecasts, sticky services inflation (Trimmed Mean CPI ~3.8%) has effectively constrained the RBA, preventing an extension of the easing cycle. Two scenarios are likely post-RBA:

· Scenario A (Most Likely – Bullish AUD): “Hawkish Hold” Governor Bullock emphasizes that inflation remains “too high” and explicitly rules out near-term cuts, potentially leaving a rate hike on the table for 2026. This widens the policy divergence with the Fed, driving AUD/USD higher toward 0.6650.

· Scenario B (Less Likely – Bearish AUD): “Dovish Pivot” The RBA focuses on slowing growth and acknowledges global disinflation trends, removing the threat of hikes. This unexpected dovish tone could trigger an immediate sell-off in AUD pairs.

AUD Outlook: Hawkish Hold Bolstered

AUD/USD: Bullish Breakout

The technical outlook for AUD/USD remains positive, with the pair breaking out of a converging triangle and surpassing the 0.6600 support level, maintaining upside momentum.

AUDUSD, Daily Chart

Outlook: Technical and fundamental factors both point toward bullish AUD performance, particularly if the RBA delivers a hawkish hold. However, if tomorrows FOMC fails to provide a convincing easing path, AUD/USD could face near-term pullback risks.

AUD/JPY: 16-Month High Breakout

AUD/JPY recently broke above 102.200, surpassing the previous high from November 2024, marking a 16-month peak.

AUDJPY, H4 Chart

With a clear breach of major resistance and a breakout from the rising wedge pattern, AUD/JPY appears primed for further gains.

Outlook: Unless the BoJ surprises with a hawkish hike next week, the pair is likely to remain supported by a stronger AUD and a weaker JPY.

Cryptocurrency Market: The “Relief” Bottom？

Tuesday‘s crypto market remained relatively subdued, with limited volatility, as attention stayed on the Australian Dollar ahead of this week’s key driver—the FOMC meeting. Focus has shifted to the crypto space, which is heavily influenced by the Fed outlook. After the recent leverage-induced sell-off, the market appears to have stabilized, finding a short-term floor as risk appetite gradually returns ahead of the Fed decision.

Market Sentiment: Panic selling has eased. Investors are now in a “wait-and-see” mode, anticipating that a Fed rate cut next week could inject fresh liquidity, lifting high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies.

1. Bitcoin (BTC): Consolidating After Recovery

Technically, firm support has formed between $86,000 and $90,000 following the recent sell-off. Bulls will need to defend this range to maintain the recovery structure.

BTCUSD, Daily Chart

BTCUSD, H4 Chart

In the near term, BTC continues to consolidate after finding a bottom. The focus now turns to whether a near-term bullish reversal can develop.

While an immediate transition into a full bull market seems unlikely, a breakout from the recent ascending triangle could signal a potential short-term bullish reversal—especially if supported by a dovish Fed. Post-FOMC action is likely to dictate BTCs next directional move.

Ethereum (ETH): Lagging BTC but Stabilizing

ETH has been slightly lagging behind BTC, as it typically follows Bitcoins lead. Recent price action suggests ETH may also have found a bottom, with key support in the $2,800–$3,100 range where bulls appear to be defending.

ETHUSD, H4 Chart

A falling wedge pattern has formed, and a breakout could indicate a potential bullish reversal. Like BTC, ETH‘s next directional move will likely hinge on the outcomes of this week’s central bank decisions.

Bottom Line

Markets are expected to remain relatively calm today, digesting the RBA decision while volatility gradually builds. Traders are keeping positions light in anticipation of the “Central Bank Super Week,” with the Fed and BoC decisions later this week expected to drive significant market movements, followed by additional central bank decisions next week.