DBG Markets: Market Report for Jul 04, 2025

Market Overview

Primary Market Drivers: Geopolitics and Trade

The markets are currently navigating two primary, complex narratives that are dictating global sentiment. It is important to note that today is the U.S. Independence Day holiday, meaning U.S. stock and bond markets are closed, leading to thinner liquidity in foreign exchange markets.

An Update on the Middle East

Despite ongoing negotiations for a 60-day ceasefire, the situation on the ground remains dire.

The Global Tariff Landscape

The second major theme is the U.S. tariff situation. The baseline 10% tariff on nearly all U.S. imports remains in effect since April 5, 2025, and is expected to continue as a permanent feature of U.S. trade policy. The critical date markets are watching is July 9, 2025, when the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire. After this date, unless new agreements are reached, these tariffs will be reinstated at rates ranging from 10% to as high as 50% on many countries.

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

Prices continue their bearish trend as they fail to break above the upper boundary of the price levels. With this, we might find a continued sell-off toward the lower boundary. The EMA200 is now acting as resistance, and both the MACD and the RSI are indicating increased selling momentum and volume. With the attempted shift in overall price action failing, we call for a sell continuation, especially as yesterday's U.S. jobs data came out better than expected, bolstering the Dollar. However, we do retain a level of conservatism, as the volatile fundamental factors discussed above could still create a bullish case for GOLD.

SILVER

Prices rose despite the fallout in GOLD prices. SILVER has broken through its high, and if prices maintain this higher level, we might see a continued rise. Right now, the technical indicators are mixed; the MACD indicates increased selling volume, but the RSI is entering oversold territory, suggesting the downward move may be overextended and due for a pause or bounce.

DXY

The Dollar was carried through with yesterdays exemplary data, where the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a gain of +195K jobs (far above the 131K forecast), while the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1%. The MACD is seeing increased buying volume while the RSI is also signaling the same. However, if prices fail to carry through beyond the EMA200, we will call for a bullish continuation within the range.

GBPUSD

The Pound is currently seeing a consolidation near the point where it shifted bearish. With this, we continue to look for a bullish market reversal. However, the MACD and the RSI are showing signs of consolidation at the moment. We will wait for a clear break before calling anything.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar is still consolidated, with prices bouncing aggressively off the EMA200. We will retain our current reading and wait for a clear break of the range.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is holding at the EMA200 and is consolidated. This consolidation is also largely reflected in the MACD and the RSI. We will wait for a clear break before calling for a price continuation.

EURUSD

The Euro is finding increased chances for consolidation as prices maneuver between established price boundaries. We will hold off on calling a direction until a clear break in structure is found.

USDJPY

As weve seen yesterday, the chances for a rise in the Yen did exist. With the current rise [in USD/JPY], if prices stay at this level for longer, we will call for a complete bullish shift. However, as long as the 145.196 level holds, we will still retain our bearish outlook [for USD/JPY strength]. It is important to take note of the EMA200, as it may stand as an effective support for prices. The MACD and the RSI are showing growth for the bullish momentum and volume.

USDCHF

The Franc tested the EMA200 [on USD/CHF]. This rise was expected but is not enough to call for a complete shift. The EMA200 rejected the price, and the MACD is finding a chance to shift back to selling. The RSI is something to watch as it is currently still consolidated. We will wait to see how prices will progress, but we do expect further selling to continue.

USDCAD

The CAD is slow but is certainly holding through a continued sell-off [for USD/CAD], holding back the gains of the Dollar. The MACD is bottoming out but is also finding a rise in selling volume. The RSI is also seeing potential for the pair to continue bearishly as it nears overbought levels. We will look for more selling opportunities while maintaining a level of conservatism for any sudden turnouts.