Stock futures fall after S&P 500 notches new record to cap winning second quarter: Live updates

U.S. equity futures fell early Tuesday after the S&P 500 notched another record to close out a stunning quarter.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 48 points, or 0.11%. The S&P 500 futures declined 0.18% while the Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.25%.

In regular trading, the broad market S&P 500 advanced 0.52%, posting another record close, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose to fresh all-time highs, gaining 0.47%. The blue-chip Dow climbed 275.50 points, or 0.63%.

Monday's moves came after Canada walked back its digital services tax in an attempt to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. Ottawa's move to rescind the new levy comes after President Donald Trump said on Friday he would be “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada.”

Traders are hoping for deals between the U.S. and its trading partners, as Trump's 90-day reprieve on his steepest tariffs is set to expire next week.

Stocks have made an impressive comeback after suffering steep declines in April, after Trump's sweeping tariff policy pushed the S&P 500 near bear market territory. The major averages have since made a sharp turnaround, with the broad market index closing the second quarter with a 10.6% gain and the Nasdaq up nearly 18% in the period.

Though traders now head into the second half of the year with stocks at record highs, some remain optimistic the market could surge even higher in the months ahead.

“We think this is going to be a broader recovery,” Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said Monday on CNBC's “Closing Bell.”

“I think with the Fed cutting in the second half of this year or next year, we can see a rolling recovery – because now there's quite a bit of pent-up demand, particularly in those interest rate sensitive parts of the market,” he added. Those corners of the market include manufacturing and housing, the strategist said.

Traders are looking ahead to the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index at 9:45 a.m. ET, which will give investors a read on the activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as the ISM manufacturing report at 10 a.m. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also be released Tuesday morning.

Goldman Sachs now sees Fed cutting in September, rather than December

Goldman Sachs pulled forward its Federal Reserve rate-cut outlook to September, a tweak from its earlier call for a December reduction.

“The very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect,” wrote David Mericle, chief U.S. economist, in a Monday report.

He added that while the labor market still appears healthy, it's become harder to find a job. “Both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls,” Mericle wrote.

Goldman is penciling in three 25 basis point cuts in September, October and December, along with two more quarter-point reductions in 2026. That results in a terminal rate forecast of 3% to 3.25%, down from the firm's earlier call for 3.5% to 3.75%.

The current target range for the federal funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%.

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Stocks making the biggest moves after hours

Here are the companies making headlines after hours.

• AeroVironment — Shares dropped more than 6% after the drone maker said it plans to issue $750 million in common stock, as well as $600 million in convertible senior notes due 2030, to repay indebtedness.
• Progress Software — Shares fell 3% after the business application software maker reported second-quarter sales that fell short of expectations. Progress Software reported sales of $237.4 million, lower than the FactSet consensus estimate $237.5 million. Adjusted earnings of $1.40 per share, however, topped the expected $1.30 earnings per share.
• Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin issuer rose more than 1% after Reuters reported it has submitted a bank charter application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Stock futures open slightly lower

U.S. equity futures ticked lower at the start of trading Monday evening.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 59 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.1%, as did Nasdaq 100 futures.