Core inflation rate rose to 2.7% in May, more than expected, Fed's preferred gauge shows

WikiFX

| 2025-06-27 13:35

Abstract：The PCE price index was projected to rise 0.1% in May, with the annual inflation rate at 2.3%, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

Prices that consumers pay rose slightly in May, while the annual inflation rate edged further away from the Federal Reserve's target, according to a Commerce Department report Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's primary inflation reading, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective levels of 0.1% and 2.3%.

Excluding food and energy, core PCE posted respective readings of 0.2% and 2.7%, compared to estimates for 0.1% and 2.6%. Fed policymakers consider core to be a better measure of long-term trends because of historic volatility in the two categories. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point ahead of the April reading.

Along with the inflation numbers, the report showed that consumer spending and income indicate further signs of weakening. Spending fell 0.1% for the month, compared to the estimate for an increase of 0.1%. Personal income declined 0.4%, against the forecast for a gain of 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the data, with stock market futures indicating a positive open on Wall Street while Treasury yields also rose.

The report comes with the Fed contemplating its next move on interest rates.

Markets largely expect the central bank to remain on hold at its late July meeting. However, a few officials of late have been advocating a cut as long as inflation data shows muted pressures from the tariffs President Donald Trump has instituted since taking office in January.

Trump has been pushing the Fed to ease, insisting that inflation is low and the Fed can always switch gears if prices start moving higher again.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though, has advocated a more cautious report, despite increasingly aggressive pressure from the president. Trump has been criticizing Powell on a regular basis lately, earlier this week calling him “stupid” and indicating that he will name a successor soon.