Home price hikes are slowing more than expected

• Home prices in formerly hot pandemic markets are now starting to fall.
• Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, with no sign of dropping.
• Prices are unlikely to fall dramatically, as there are still too few homes for sale.

Rising supply and slowing demand in the housing market are finally causing prices to cool off, and the weakness is accelerating.

Home prices nationally rose just 2.7% in April compared with the previous year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday. That is down from a 3.4% annual increase in March and is the smallest gain in nearly two years.

The report is slightly back-dated, as it is a three-month running average of prices ending in April. Other more current readings of the market, such as one from Parcl Labs, shows prices nationally are now flat compared with a year ago.

S&P Case-Shiller found the deceleration in prices was taking hold across the 10- and 20-city composites its index measures. Both are now substantially below their recent peaks. In addition, much of the annual increase in the April reading occurred in just the past six months, meaning prices got a boost from the spring market rather than showing up throughout the year.

“What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release.

New York saw the biggest increase in prices, with a 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 6% and Detroit at 5.5%. This is a shift from the first years of the pandemic, when the Sun Belt was seeing huge demand and big price gains.

Prices in those previously hot markets are now falling. Both Tampa and Dallas turned negative, down 2.2% and 0.2% respectively. San Francisco prices were basically flat, and both Phoenix and Miami eked out gains of just over 1%.

Higher mortgage rates, which shot over 7% in April and have settled back just under that mark since then, are keeping potential monthly payments near generational highs and pricing out significant pools of buyers, especially first-timers. That share dropped to just 30% of May sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers historically make up 40% of the market.

The supply of homes for sale is rising sharply, but is still below pre-pandemic levels. Just 6% of sellers are at risk of selling at a loss, according to a new report from Redfin. That is slightly higher than a year ago, but still historically low.

While prices are certainly weakening, they are nowhere close to being at risk of the major declines last seen following the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession over a decade ago.

“Housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared,” said Godec.