Whoever Ends the War Becomes the Hero

While the broader market interprets U.S. intervention as an escalation in geopolitical tensions, we believe it marks the beginning of the end for the Middle East conflict.

Iran's nuclear facilities, buried deep underground beyond the reach of Israeli airstrikes, could only be neutralized with U.S. involvement. Without this, the Israel-Iran conflict would have continued indefinitely. The U.S. move was a calculated strike to dismantle Irans nuclear threat, essentially helping Israel “complete the mission” and prevent a nuclear escalation.

As our headline suggests: “He who starts the war is the villain; he who ends it is the hero.”

(Figure 1. Iranian state media releases footage of a hand on a nuclear bomb. Source: X)

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that no nuclear radiation has leaked from the Iranian facilities targeted in the strike. Although the U.S. conducted the attack, Iran has stated it retains all rights to defend its sovereignty. However, its retaliation has been focused on Israeli targets, not U.S. military facilities in the region. While Irans parliament approved a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic remains unaffected for now.

With concerns over the Strait of Hormuz already priced in during Mondays Asian session, we believe markets—including oil, gold, and risk assets—have fully digested the geopolitical risk. Further panic is unlikely.

In terms of capital flow logic, we observed a renewed safe-haven shift back into the U.S. dollar. Traditional safe havens like the Japanese yen depreciated to 146.75 (as of 9:36 AM), while the strengthening dollar dragged gold prices down from an intraday high of $3,375 to $3,351 per ounce.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields showed no sign of safe-haven buying, indicating that markets view this conflict as contained and less alarming than media headlines suggest.

(Figure 2. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield. Source: CNBC)

While most investors remain fixated on Middle East developments, we want to highlight another key event:

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a public meeting at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, June 25 (2:00 AM Beijing time, Thursday) to discuss proposed amendments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR).

Capital flows are often forward-looking. The return of risk-off sentiment to U.S. dollar assets and long-duration Treasuries signals increased investor confidence and could strengthen risk appetite moving forward.

Strategic Layered Thinking

• First-level thinking: Buy oil and gold, short equity indices amid geopolitical tensions.

• Second-level thinking: Once conflict subsides, oil prices correct, gold becomes overvalued, and equity markets bottom out.

Gold Technical Outlook

Gold gapped higher following weekend conflict but quickly retreated after failing to break the 50% Fibonacci resistance level. We reiterate that the weekly candle has printed a bearish Harami pattern—a potential signal of a top reversal.

This weeks strategy should focus on selling into rallies, not chasing long positions.

We have redefined our Fibonacci extension targets:

• Primary bearish target: 1.618 extension near $3,271

• Support levels: $3,340 / $3,272

• Resistance: $3,395

Caution: The above insights, analyses, and price levels are general market commentary and do not represent any trading advice or platform stance. All investors should evaluate risk independently and act with discretion.