Dollar Stall as Markets Grapple with Mixed Signals

Key Takeaways:

• Dollar swings as soft CPI data fuels Fed rate cut bets, but trade optimism offers support

• Gold dips on improved risk appetite, but weak dollar limits downside.

• Both assets are likely to consolidate amid mixed signals.

Dollar: Dovish Data vs. Trade Optimism

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) experienced significant volatility in the latest session, reflecting investors' struggle to reconcile mixed macroeconomic signals. The initial decline was triggered by a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, reinforcing the narrative of cooling inflation. This data point added weight to growing market expectations for a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, prompting a decline in U.S. yields and the greenback as traders adjusted their rate forecasts.

However, the dollar later recovered, buoyed by renewed optimism over trade negotiations between the U.S. and key global partners. Positive signals on this front improved the U.S. growth outlook, helping restore demand for dollar-denominated assets. As such, the dollar is currently navigating divergent forces: disinflation driving rate-cut expectations versus improved geopolitical sentiment supporting economic resilience.

Investors should expect continued two-way risks, with the next directional move likely determined by incoming data on inflation, labor markets, and Fed communications. For now, the dollar may remain range-bound, sensitive to shifts in both monetary and geopolitical outlooks.

Gold: Tethered to Real Yields and Risk Sentiment

Gold prices edged lower amid improving global risk appetite. The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, contributing to profit-taking in bullion markets. However, the downside was cushioned by the same U.S. CPI release that weakened the dollar, thereby supporting gold as a dollar-denominated store of value.

This tug-of-war highlights the assets current sensitivity to real interest rates and global investor sentiment. As real yields decline and the opportunity cost of holding gold falls, the precious metal retains a base level of support—even in the face of rising equities and reduced tail risk.

Going forward, gold is likely to consolidate as the market digests mixed catalysts. Investors will closely monitor further inflation data, central bank language, and potential geopolitical flare-ups for clearer directional cues.

Technical Analysis

Dollar Index, H4

The Dollar Index continues to consolidate near the key support zone around 100.30, reflecting indecision in the market. The MACD indicates weakening bearish momentum, suggesting selling pressure is fading. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the neutral level of 50, highlighting a lack of clear directional momentum.

In the absence of a strong catalyst, the dollar may continue to trade sideways within the current consolidation range. A decisive break below 100.30 could open the door toward 99.15, while a rebound above 101.90 would indicate the potential for a short-term bullish reversal.

Resistance levels: 101.90, 103.40

Support levels: 100.30, 99.15

GOLD, H1:

Gold prices have extended their pullback following a confirmed break below the double-top neckline, signaling a potential bearish continuation. The MACD shows increasing downside momentum, while the RSI remains in oversold territory at 29, reinforcing the bearish bias.

If momentum remains intact, gold could test the next support at 3125.00. However, if bearish strength weakens and RSI recovers above 30, there is room for a technical rebound toward the 3210.00 resistance. Further confirmation is needed before any reversal scenario gains traction.

Resistance levels: 3210.00, 3285.00

Support levels: 3125.00, 3045.00