RBNZ Decision & US Inflation—What’s at Stake for Markets?

The Week Ahead: Week of 7th April 2025 (GMT+3)

Key Events to Watch:

Wednesday, 9 April 2025 – 05:00

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) faces a pivotal week with the RBNZ expected to hold rates at 5.50%, as traders scrutinize the central bank‘s guidance for clues on the policy outlook. A hawkish tilt could bolster the NZD, while dovish rhetoric or signs of delayed rate cuts may spur downside pressure. External risks loom as upside momentum could be capped by renewed trade risks—such as potential tariff escalations under a Trump presidency 

Thursday, 10 April 2025 – 15:30

US Core CPI & CPI (March)

The US dollar faces a critical test with the latest inflation data release. After February‘s 2.8% YoY CPI print, any acceleration above this level could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, sending Treasury yields and the USD higher. Conversely, if the released CPI falls below the 2.8% market forecast, it could revive risk appetite, pressuring the dollar. The Core CPI (MoM) figure will also be in focus—anything above 0.3% may strengthen the Feds case for prolonged higher rates. Given its impact on rate expectations, this CPI release could dictate broader market sentiment heading into the end of the week.

Friday, 11 April 2025 – 09:00

UK GDP (MoM) (February)

The UK‘s February GDP report comes at a pivotal moment, following January’s unexpected -0.1% contraction. A positive print above 0.1% MoM could provide temporary support for sterling and delay Bank of England rate cut bets. However, another negative reading could fuel aggressive selling pressure on GBP/USD, potentially reinforcing expectations of more accommodative monetary policy. With the services sector contributing 75% of UK GDP, its performance will be a key determinant of market reactions.

Friday, 11 April 2025 – 15:30

US PPI (MoM) (March)

US Producer Price Index (PPI) data will offer further insights into inflation trends, with traders closely monitoring whether February‘s 3.2% YoY reading signals persistent price pressures. A print above the 3.3% consensus could reinforce USD strength and weigh on equities, particularly if CPI also surprises to the upside. The MoM core reading will be particularly influential—any number above 0.3% could bolster expectations for a prolonged Fed tightening cycle. Given PPI’s typical lead on CPI trends, this release will be a key factor in shaping Fed rate bets for the months ahead.

Friday, 11 April 2025 – 09:00

German CPI (MoM) (February)

As Europe‘s largest economy grapples with inflation dynamics, Germany’s CPI release will be crucial in shaping ECB rate expectations. February‘s 0.3% MoM reading serves as a baseline, with a higher print above 0.4% potentially reinforcing hawkish sentiment and delaying rate cuts. Conversely, a softer reading below 0.2% could support risk assets and ease pressure on policymakers. Given its influence on broader Eurozone inflation trends, this data will be closely analyzed ahead of ECB President Lagarde’s policy speech on April 12.