Gold Slides as Dollar Strengthens

• Markets will be watching the U.S. GDP and PCE before Trump's trade policies take effect on April 2nd.

• Gold prices ease while the dollar strengthens and mitigates geopolitical risk in the euro region.

• Oil prices are forecasted to slide as the Ukraine- Russia ceasefire deal may increase Russia's oil supply to the global market.

Market Summary

The U.S. financial market is bracing for heightened volatility as investors await key announcements from the Trump administration regarding trade policies, with any unexpected remarks from the President having the potential to shift market direction. Beyond trade uncertainties, market participants are also closely watching upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE data, which will provide crucial insights into the strength of the U.S. economy and its implications for Wall Street and the dollar.

In the commodity market, traders are monitoring developments in the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations. Gold prices retreated in the last session as markets perceived progress in the talks, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, oil prices remain under pressure, with WTI struggling to break above the $70 mark. The market anticipates that a ceasefire deal could lead to an increase in Russian oil supply, potentially weighing on global crude prices in the near term.

Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (86.4%) VS -25 bps (13.6%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The US Dollar Index has gained for three consecutive days, rising from a five-month low of 103.19 to around 104.01, fueled by the Fed‘s hawkish stance and the impact of trade uncertainties.The index climbed 0.33% to 104.13, supported by rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting 4.252%, further supporting the dollar’s strength. Although the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year, its "no rush to cut" rhetoric has bolstered the dollar.

The index is consolidating around 104.000, with key resistance at 105.036 and support at 103.201. A breakout above 105.036 could extend gains toward 106.268, while a drop below support may trigger further losses. The RSI continued to climb while MACD broke above from the zero line, suggesting a bullish bias for the index.

Resistance level: 105.036, 106.268

Support level: 103.201,101.722

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices retreated slightly due to technical correction and profit-taking. In the short term, gold is expected to consolidate within a range as investors remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of major global events, including Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations and potential US tariff measures. Improved trade or ceasefire negotiations could boost risk appetite, leading investors to shift toward higher-risk assets, which may diminish golds safe-haven appeal. Conversely, any escalation in geopolitical tensions or worsening trade relations could drive renewed demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold prices are trading flat while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 47, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory.

Resistance level: 3030.00, 3055.00

Support level: 3005.00, 2985.00

Crude Oil, H4

Crude Oil prices edged higher as OPEC+ supply constraints and fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran tightened market conditions. WTI settled at $68.28 per barrel, up 0.31%, while Brent gained 0.22% to close at $72.16. Brent crude oil remains volatile, fluctuating between $72.39 and $70.18, as falling U.S. fuel inventories and geopolitical risks provide support. However, a stronger dollar and lingering oversupply concerns have limited upside momentum. While U.S. sanctions on Iran briefly lifted prices, the impact is expected to fade.

Oil prices are now testing their resistance at their recent high of 68.40; a break to the new high should be a bullish signal for oil. Both the RSI and MACD have been moving in an upward trend manner, suggesting that bullish momentum is gaining, which is in line with the bullish bias view.

Resistance level: 68.40, 69.03

Support level: 67.80, 66.36