Eyes on Today’s NFP

*The U.S. dollar remains subdued ahead of the NFP that is due today.

*Wall Street remained lacklustre and closed lower in the last session.

*Eye on todays White House crypto summit and cryptocurrency price implications.

Market Summary

The U.S. dollar remains subdued, with the dollar index down over 3% since Monday, as investors await todays Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. A stronger-than-expected reading could provide much-needed support for the greenback, which has faced persistent selling pressure amid aggressive trade policies from the Trump administration.

On Wall Street, risk sentiment remains fragile, with all three major indices extending their declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have slumped to their lowest levels since November, as trade tensions continue to rattle investor confidence. A robust NFP report could further weigh on equities, reinforcing concerns over tighter monetary policy.

Meanwhile, China‘s equity markets are finding support, as Beijing signals more aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus following this week’s Two Sessions meeting. The China A50 and Hang Seng Index have outperformed, buoyed by expectations of pro-growth policies.

In the forex market, the euro remains one of the strongest G7 currencies, fueled by a sharp selloff in German Bunds that has driven yields to record highs. Traders are closely watching today‘s eurozone GDP release, which could further bolster euro upside momentum. At the same time, Japanese bond yields have surged ahead of the Bank of Japan’s upcoming rate decision, keeping the yen supported on expectations of a potential policy shift.

In crypto markets, all eyes are on the U.S. crypto summit at the White House. If President Trump delivers any promising policy announcements, it could trigger a bullish rally across digital assets, with traders positioning ahead of potential regulatory shifts.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (95%) VS -25 bps (5%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index held steady after U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 221K, beating expectations of 234K and fueling optimism ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. However, traders remained cautious as labor market data and ongoing U.S. tariff policies continued to influence sentiment. President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, only to delay auto sector levies for a month. This policy uncertainty has left investors hesitant to make decisive moves in currency markets.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 28, suggesting the index might enter oversold territory.

Resistance level: 105.65, 107.60

Support level: 103.90, 102.40

EUR/USD, H4

The euro continues to rally, driven by growing optimism over economic expansion following Germany‘s large-scale national spending plans under its newly elected chancellor. Market sentiment remains bullish on the expectation of stronger fiscal support, which could further accelerate growth in the eurozone’s largest economy. Investors are now turning their focus to today‘s eurozone GDP release. A better-than-expected reading could reinforce the euro’s upside momentum, further strengthening its position as one of the top-performing G7 currencies.

The EUR/USD pair is currently traded sideways after a rally. The pair is able to sustain itself above the FVG, suggesting that it remains trading in a bullish trajectory. The RSI is flowing in the overbought zone while the MACD remains elevated, suggesting that it remains trading with bullish momentum.

Resistance level: 1.0956, 1.1075

Support level: 1.0672, 1.0527

BTC, H4:

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within an asymmetric triangle pattern, with a breakout on either side likely to provide a clear directional signal for the cryptocurrency. BTC faced a technical selloff in the last session as markets reacted to reports that the U.S. government may designate forfeited BTC as part of its national strategic reserve, should the proposed bill pass. The decision suggests that Washington will not actively acquire BTC from the open market, dampening expectations of a demand-driven price surge following the Trump administrations proposal.

BTC remains trading within its asymmetric triangle price pattern, suggesting a neutral signal for BTC. The RSI remains close to the 50 level, while the MACD flows close to the zero line, both indicators giving a neutral signal for BTC.

Resistance level: 91400.00, 99300.00

Support level: 84800.00, 79,700.00