FX Analysis – Yield spike on hot retail sales fails to lift USD, AUD outperforms, JPY , NZD.
Abstract：On Tuesday, despite a significant rise in treasury yields driven by better-than-expected US retail sales figures (which increased by 0.7% month-on-month compared to the expected 0.3%), the US dollar (USD) remained within a narrow trading range.
On Tuesday, despite a significant rise in treasury yields driven by better-than-expected US retail sales figures (which increased by 0.7% month-on-month compared to the expected 0.3%), the US dollar (USD) remained within a narrow trading range. The Dollar Index (DXY) experienced sharp fluctuations, reaching a high of 106.52 initially in response to the retail sales data, but quickly retracing gains and hitting a low of 106.02. Federal Reserve (Fed) member Barkin also commented that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would have a thorough discussion concerning the possibility of a Fed rate hike at their November meeting. In the coming days, market participants should expect to hear from more Fed speakers, including Chair Powell on Thursday. Additionally, any update on geopolitical events will be closely monitored by USD traders.
AUD and NZD were divergent on Tuesday, with the Aussie the G10 outperformer and the Kiwi the laggard. AUDUSD continuing its bounce off the major support at 0.6286 to rally to a high of 0.6380, helped along by what was seen as hawkish RBA minutes released during the session. NZDUSD on the other hand struggled after a not as hot as expected NZ CPI, NZDUSD dipping to test the October lows at 0.5871 before finding some support..
AUDNZD surged higher, retaking the key 1.07 level and within a whisker of also breaching 1.08
JPY faltered against the USD despite seeing strength early in the session after a Bloomberg report that the BoJ was considering revising their inflation forecasts higher. The surge in the Yen swiftly faded with yield differentials pushing USDJPY higher, to hover just below the 150 “intervention zone”
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Rupee Ends 13 Paise Up at 95.15 After RBI Holds Repo at 5.25%: The Effect of a Weak USD, Cooler Oil
The Indian rupee settled at 95.15 against the US dollar on 5 August 2026, gaining 13 paise after the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-0 to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent for the third time in a row in FY27. The rupee had opened 46 paise higher, rallied to an intraday strongest of 94.89 ahead of the policy decision, and then drifted back as RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that the currency 'has not appreciated as intended despite the high flows from foreign shores.' A weak dollar index, a sharp pullback in Brent crude from above USD 100 in July, and net FII equity inflows of Rs 2,447 crore on Tuesday combined to support the rupee. USD-INR is expected to trade in a 94.80-95.50 band in the near term.
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