Abstract:Following the release of the ADP employment data in the United States, the USD to peso exchange rate witnessed an initial gap of over 3 pesos, and subsequently approached the 800 peso mark once again. The remarkable surge in job creation was so significant that it surpassed expectations by doubling the anticipated figure, with market forecasts anticipating nearly 500,000 new job additions compared to the previously projected 230,000.

Following the release of the ADP employment data in the United States, the USD to peso exchange rate witnessed an initial gap of over 3 pesos, and subsequently approached the 800 peso mark once again. The remarkable surge in job creation was so significant that it surpassed expectations by doubling the anticipated figure, with market forecasts anticipating nearly 500,000 new job additions compared to the previously projected 230,000.
In turn, unemployment claims also came out slightly higher than expected, but this is offset by the large number of new job creations, which would generate higher consumption and increased inflationary pressures.
There is no doubt that the North American market has recovered its dynamism and it is increasingly evident that the rate increases in the USA are going to be maintained, and at least the two increases announced by the Fed in past meetings would be respected.
In regards to the recent price range, it is expected that the currency will stabilize around 800 pesos, with the potential to reach 805. Should it surpass this level, there is a possibility of further upward movement towards the ceiling of 810. It is important to note that the monetary policy approach taken by the Chilean central bank differs from that of its northern counterpart, necessitating a shift towards a more restrictive monetary policy to stimulate the economy. Consequently, this adjustment would likely sustain the upward pressure on the dollar peso exchange rate for a significant period.


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India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $747.56 billion in the week ended September 25, according to The Economic Times, which reported the figure alongside a headline decline of $18.34 billion. The same report said the fall was driven mainly by a reduction in foreign currency assets, the largest component of the reserves.

The Reserve Bank of India raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Wednesday, October 7, its first increase in nearly four years, and shifted its stance to "calibrated tightening". Governor Sanjay Malhotra said outright that rate cuts are off the table for now. "Rate cuts are off the table in the near term and policy action ahead can only be a rate hike or a pause, depending on the evolving conditions and the outlook," Malhotra said. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously, according to multiple reports. For a retail trader, the number to sit with is not 5.50%. It is 5.25% — the Standing Deposit Facility rate, the floor of the RBI's corridor, and the rate that effectively sets what it costs to fund a short-rupee position overnight. The rupee has been weakening, and reports describe that weakness as one of the reasons the RBI moved.

Indian stocks have fallen for eight straight weeks. The economy grew 7.8% in the June quarter. In a post on flow problem, not a growth problem. For anyone trading USD/INR, that distinction decides where the pressure lands. The rupee has been hovering around 96 per dollar, with the Reserve Bank of India selling dollars to keep the move orderly (Rediff MoneyWiz). Orderly spot is not the same thing as cheap carry. The cost of that stability shows up elsewhere.