Abstract:Following the release of the ADP employment data in the United States, the USD to peso exchange rate witnessed an initial gap of over 3 pesos, and subsequently approached the 800 peso mark once again. The remarkable surge in job creation was so significant that it surpassed expectations by doubling the anticipated figure, with market forecasts anticipating nearly 500,000 new job additions compared to the previously projected 230,000.
Following the release of the ADP employment data in the United States, the USD to peso exchange rate witnessed an initial gap of over 3 pesos, and subsequently approached the 800 peso mark once again. The remarkable surge in job creation was so significant that it surpassed expectations by doubling the anticipated figure, with market forecasts anticipating nearly 500,000 new job additions compared to the previously projected 230,000.
In turn, unemployment claims also came out slightly higher than expected, but this is offset by the large number of new job creations, which would generate higher consumption and increased inflationary pressures.
There is no doubt that the North American market has recovered its dynamism and it is increasingly evident that the rate increases in the USA are going to be maintained, and at least the two increases announced by the Fed in past meetings would be respected.
In regards to the recent price range, it is expected that the currency will stabilize around 800 pesos, with the potential to reach 805. Should it surpass this level, there is a possibility of further upward movement towards the ceiling of 810. It is important to note that the monetary policy approach taken by the Chilean central bank differs from that of its northern counterpart, necessitating a shift towards a more restrictive monetary policy to stimulate the economy. Consequently, this adjustment would likely sustain the upward pressure on the dollar peso exchange rate for a significant period.
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