Summer slump

Last week, there were concerns about global economic growth. Tension between the US and China increased, and Chinas Caixin PMI data was also lower than expected. On top of this, many analysts consider the recent US stock rally stretched and the latest set of FOMC minutes revealed a more hawkish stance from some members. The Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to raise interest rates, but it hinted at the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation and labour data remain strong. This should provide support for the AUDNZD currency pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is meeting next week, so that will be an important event to watch going forward.

Other key events from the past week

• AUD: RBA skips a rate hike, July 4: The RBA surprised markets again this month, but with a rate skip. However, it may not be enough to keep the AUD pressured as the RBA still signalled a need for higher rates. See here for more.

• USD: FOMC minutes, July 5: The latest FOMC minutes showed that a number of participants favoured raising rates by 25bps at the last Fed meeting citing the tight (strong) US labour market. Fridays NFP is going to be a big focus now.

• China: Chinese Caixin PMI, July 5: Concerns over a slower recovery in China were reinforced again this week. China‘s Caixin services purchasing managers’ index came in at 53.9 vs 56.5 expected. Will this prompt more stimulus？

Key events for the coming week

• GBP: UK Labour data July 11: UK labour data on Tuesday will be crucial in understanding if inflationary pressure is now in UK wages. If we see another high earnings print then that will keep the pressure on the BoE for more rate hikes.

• Seasonal Insights: Check out the strong seasonals for the Nasdaq in July.

• NZD: RBNZ interest rate meeting, July 12: The RBNZ is expected, by short-term interest rate markets, to keep rates unchanged at 5.50%. In its last rate meeting, it signalled it had done hiking rates for now, so will it repeat this message again？