MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

April28,2023-FundamentalReminder

☆EuropeanCentralBankPresidentLagardedeliversaspeech,timetobedetermined

☆AnnouncementoftheBankofJapan'sinterestrateresolutionandoutlookreportat11:00pm

☆At14:30,BankofJapanGovernorKazuoShibataheldapressconference

☆At20:30,announcethemonthlyGDPrateforCanadainFebruary,themonthlypersonalexpenditureratefortheUnitedStatesinMarch,theannualandmonthlycorePCEpriceindexrateforMarch,andthequarterlylaborcostindexrateforthefirstquarter

☆AnnouncementofChicagoPMIforAprilat21:45

☆ThefinalvalueoftheUniversityofMichiganconsumerconfidenceindexinAprilwasreleasedat22:00

☆At23:00,theFederalReserveannouncesitsinvestigationandevaluationreportonSiliconValleybanks

☆AnnouncethetotalnumberofoilwellsdrilledintheUnitedStatesfortheweekendingApril28at1:00thenextday

MarketOverview

ReviewofGlobalMarketTrend

ThedatareleasedonThursdaymaybetheworst-casescenario,astheUSGDPgrowthrateinthefirstquarterwasmuchlowerthanexpected,whilethecorePCEpriceindexinthefirstquarterwashigherthanexpected.ThismeansthattheUSeconomicgrowthratehasdeclined,whileinflationremainshigh,raisingconcernsaboutstagflationbecomingareality.Affectedbythisdata,theUSdollarindexjumpedto101.82duringthesession,closing0.12%higherat101.5.

TheUSTreasuryyieldroseduringthesession,andthetwo-yearUSTreasuryyieldbrieflyregaineditslossesfromtheprevioustwodaysbeforefallingto4.07%.The10-yearUSTreasuryyieldrosefrom3.43%to3.52%withintheday.

SpotgoldroseandfellafterthereleaseofUSeconomicdata,droppingfromadailyhighof2003.7USdollarsperounceto1974.13USdollarsperounce,divingnearly30USdollarsbeforereboundingandclosingdown0.07%at1987.8USdollarsperounce.Spotsilverbrieflyreturnedabovethe$25levelinintradaytrading,butfailedtoholdittocloseup0.19%at$24.93perounce.

Crudeoilbenefitedfromaresurgenceinmarketriskappetiteandrosemoderately,buttheriseintheUSindexlimiteditsgains.WTIcrudeoilclosedup0.63%at$74.78perbarrel;Brentcrudeoilclosedup0.67%at$78.25perbarrel.

TheUSstockmarketopenedhighertoday,withtheDowJonesIndustrialAverageup1.58%,theNasdaqup2.43%,andtheS&P500Indexup1.96%,markingthelargestdailygainsinceearlyJanuaryofthisyear.MetaPlatformssawasignificantincreaseofnearly14%afteritsperformance.

Europeanstocksalmostclosedhigher,whiletheGermanDAX30indexclosed0.05%higher;TheFTSE100IndexintheUKcloseddown0.27%;TheFrenchCAC40indexclosedup0.23%;TheEuropeanStoxx50indexclosedup0.25%;TheIBEX35indexinSpainclosedup0.21%;TheItalianFTSEMIBindexclosed0.19%higher.

MarketFocus

1.BangkokPost:ThailandandChinaholdtalksonexpandinglocalcurrencysettlement.

2.ThesizeofemergencyloansprovidedtobanksbytheFederalReserveroseforthesecondweekinarowto$155.2billion.

3.Sudan'sRapidSupportForcesannounceagreementtoextendceasefirefor72hours.

4.Tocombatdrugtrafficking,BidendeclaredanationalemergencyintheU.S.

5.Indiawillallow140tonsofgoldimportsfromtheUAEatpreferentialtariffs.

6.RussianDeputyPrimeMinisterNovak:OPEC+seesnoneedforfurthercutsinoilproduction.

7.U.S.stockssurged,boostedbytechstockearnings,withNasdaqfuturesclosingup2.4%,whichwasthebiggestgaininamonth.

8.Indonesia'stradeministry:willlowerpalmoildomesticmarketobligation(DMO)to300,000tonspermonthfromMay1.

9.U.S.Q1corePCErecorded4.9%,strongerthanexpected.U.S.Q1GDPgrowthrecorded1.1%,lessthanexpected,withbusinessinventoriesfallingforthefirsttimeinayearandahalf,pullingdownthegrowthrate.

10.FedChairmanPowellspokewithRussianpranksterspretendingtobeUkrainianPresidentZelenskyinJanuary,andPowellansweredarangeofquestionsfromtheinflationoutlook.

GeopoliticalSituation

1.RussianDefenseMinistry:troopsoccupiedfourneighborhoodsinnorthwestern,westernandsouthwesternBakhmut.

2.TheU.S.hasdeployedaWestern-aidedUkrainianweaponstrackingsysteminUkraine

3.NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenberg:NATOallieshavedeliveredalmostallthecombatvehiclespromisedtoUkraine

4.OntheexpulsionofRussiandiplomatsfromEurope,theKremlinsaid:relationsareatthelowestpossiblelevel.

5.RussianForeignMinistry:Russiadoesnotconsidertheimplementationstatusofthefoodagreementsatisfactory.

6.AllRussiansubwaystationsinMoscowreceivedanonymousthreateningmessageswith“explosives”.TheRussianMinistryofEmergencySituationssaidthatthemessagesarelikelytocomefromUkraine.ThereisnoresponsefromtheUkrainiansideatthistime.

7.Ukraine'scentralbankexpectsitsforeignreservestoincreaseto$34.5billionbytheendofthisyearthankstoforeignaid.

8.TheCentralBankofUkraine:keepsthekeyinterestrateunchangedat25%andcanstartloweringthekeyrateinthefourthquarterof2023.

MHMarkets

InstitutionalPerspective

01

GoldmanSachs

RaisetheforecastfortheBankofEngland'speakrateto5%.

02

SOCIETEGENERALE

【SocieteGenerale:U.S.taxrevenuedropinAprilwillbringforwarddebtdeadline】

April21,SocieteGeneraleSubadraRajappaandotherstrategistssaidinareportthattheU.S.TreasuryismorelikelytorunoutofitsborrowingcapacitysometimeinJuneiftaxrevenuesfortherestofAprilarearound50%of2022levels.SocieteGeneralestillexpectstheU.S.TreasurytorunoutofitsborrowingcapacitybetweenlateJulyandearlyAugust,buttheforecastwillfaceuncertaintyiftaxrevenuesaremuchlowerthancurrentlyexpected.SocieteGeneralesaidtheforecastisbasedonassumptionsabouttaxrevenuesfortheremainderofAprilandthesizeofborrowingavailableundertheextraordinarymeasures.

03

MUFG

MitsubishiUFJBankwillincreaseitstransferfeesinJapanfromOctober2.