Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

☆ At 9:30, China February annual rate of CPI is released, and the expected value of 1.90%, the previous value of 2.10%.

☆ At 20:30, U.S. Challenger Job Cuts for February is released; At 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week to March 4 is released, and the expected value is an increase of 195,000, the previous value is an increase of 190,000.

☆ To be determined, the House of Representatives of Japan votes on the appointment of the leadership of the Bank of Japan.

☆ To be determined, the U.S. White House releases the budget proposal for fiscal 2024.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Wednesday, spot gold consolidated and quickly recovered after falling below the 1810 mark in early trading. The U.S. market surged nearly $15 higher than the daily low, but then gave back gains and eventually closed down 0.01% at $1813.86 per ounce. Spot silver hovered near the 20 mark and eventually closed down 0.35% at $20.03 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar index oscillated at a high level and ended up slightly by 0.066% at 105.71, which was a new 3-month high. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield held steady above the 5% mark, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed up 0.36% at 3.989%.

International crude oil extended its downside, with WTI crude oil falling nearly 2% intraday to a one-week low, eventually closing down 0.98% at $76.4 per barrel; Brent crude oil eventually closed down 0.89% at $82.54 per barrel.

U.S. stocks pulled up in late trading, with the Dow closing down 0.18%, the Nasdaq closing up 0.4% and the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%. Popular Chinese stocks were lower for the day, with Ideal Auto closing down about 5%, YMM closing down about 4% after the performance, and Alibaba closing down about 2%.

European major stock indexes were mixed. Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.46% at 15631.87 points; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.13% at 7929.92 points; Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.22% at 4288.45 points.         

Market Focus

1. Powell stressed that he had not yet made a decision on the pace of interest rate increase and reiterated that he was guided by economic data. Do not seek to cause economic recession.

2. The swap trading showed that the implied terminal interest rate of the Federal Reserve was close to 5.7%, and the probability of raising interest rate by 50BP in March rose to 75%.

3. Biden will propose a budget to reduce the deficit on Thursday, or involve the elimination of cryptocurrency transactions and oil and gas tax subsidies, and raise the deficit target of $2 trillion to $3 trillion in ten years.

4. Perth Mint in Australia responded to the sale of “adulterated” gold bars: the purity and value of gold bars sold to Chinese customers are no problem.

5. The question raised by the Republican Party of the United States on the reform of encryption regulation suggested the direction.

6. The US senator once again proposed the NOPEC bill to oppose OPEC's “oil price manipulation”.

7. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of the United States allows LNG production in Texas Free Port to reach the authorized maximum capacity.

8. For the first time since last October, traders have fully digested the 5% peak interest rate of the Bank of England.

9. The Bank of Canada suspended the interest rate increase as scheduled after the cumulative increase of 425 basis points, and reiterated its hope to maintain the key interest rate at the current level.

10. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: The U.S. economy grew slightly at the beginning of the year. The respondents expected that the price rise would continue to slow down, and the housing market in the East Coast rose unexpectedly. Some regions pointed out that enterprises found it more difficult to pass on costs to consumers.

11. Data - US ADP employment increased by 242,000 in February, higher than the expected increase of 200,000; The US trade account in January was $68.3 billion; The monthly rate of industrial output in Germany recorded 3.5% in January, the largest increase since June 2020.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict situation:

1. Russian oligarch Prigozhin: Wagner Group has completely controlled all the eastern regions of Bachmut.

2. The German media quoted the federal prosecutor as saying that German investigators raided and inspected the ships suspected of being related to the explosion of the Nord Stream in January.

3. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg: We cannot rule out the possibility of the fall of Bahmut in the next few days.

4. Ministry of Defense of Russia: The Russian army attacked the personnel and weapons of the Ukrainian army in Kupiyansk, Zinchman and other directions, and attacked the headquarters of the 59th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian army in Donetsk.

5. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: the Ukrainian army repulsed the Russian army's attack in Bakhmut, Avjevka and other places.

Energy situation:

1. The Ukrainian President's Office responded that it was absolutely not involved in the attack on “Nord Stream”.

2. National Energy Corporation of Ukraine: There has been no power shortage in the Ukrainian power system for 25 consecutive days.

3. Angolan oil minister: OPEC has no need to increase oil production to make up for Russia's production reduction.

4. Berkeley: Russia's crude oil production is expected to decline by 500,000 barrels/day in the fourth quarter of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 700,000 barrels/day.

Assistance situation:

1. South Korean officials: The South Korean government approved Poland's export of howitzers with Korean components to Ukraine.

2. German Defense Minister: 18 German Leopard 2 tanks and 3 Portuguese Leopard 2 tanks will go to Kiev together in March.

3. Ukrainian media: Germany has provided Ukraine with two Cheetah anti-aircraft tanks (Gepard) and 6,000 sets of ammunition.

4. International Monetary Fund: negotiations with Ukraine on new loan projects have begun.

5. The Vice-President and “Foreign Minister” Borell of the European Commission announced that he had proposed to allocate 1 billion euros from the European Peace Fund to meet the urgent demand for the supply of ammunition to Kiev.

6. The Dutch Defense Minister called for a meeting with the EU defense industry to accelerate the delivery of ammunition to Kiev

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Hedge funds bought information technology stocks and sold financial stocks for the eighth consecutive week.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

[SOCIETE GENERALE looks forward to the RBA's interest rate decision]

On March 6, SOCIETE GENERALE believed that the recent macroeconomic data of Australia showed signs, such as lower inflation, rebound in unemployment rate, relatively tepid wage growth and slower consumption, all supported the Federal Reserve of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March. SOCIETE GENERALE also said that although the financial market had a more hawkish expectation of the Federal Reserve's policy, investors also supported the Bank's expectation that the terminal interest rate of the Federal Reserve of Australia would be 3.85%.

03

MUFG

Powell has hawkish tone, but the euro injured.