NZD/USD Fails to Push Back Above 50-Day SMA

The NZD/USD pair has dropped sharply below 0.6320 as the Chinas National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported lower-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Jan) data. The annual inflation data has landed at 2.1% lower than the consensus of 2.2% but higher than the prior release of 1.8%.

This is different compared to the price action in January, NZD/USD has not responded to the positive slope in the moving average, and the decline from monthly high may lead to a potential shift in the near-term trend if the exchange rate fails to defend the opening range for 2023.

Looking forward, it remains to be seen if the U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey will influence NZD/USD as the update is anticipated to show a further improvement in household confidence, and a positive development may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it raises the Federal Reserves scope to pursue a more restrictive policy.

However, the update to the U. of Michigan survey may do little to sway the US monetary policy outlook as the CME Fed Watch Tool shows a greater than 90% probability for another 25bp rate hike next month, and speculation for an imminent change in regime may continue to curb the appeal of the Greenback as the Federal Open Market Committee emphasizes that ‘shifting to a slower pace will better allow the Committee to assess the economy’s progress toward our goals.

The USD may continue to face headwinds as the Fed appears to be approaching the end of its hiking-cycle, but NZD/USD may struggle to retain the advance from the January low as it fails to trade back above the 50-day SMA.

NZD/USD appears to have reserved course ahead of the June 2022 high as it no longer responds to the positive slope in the 50-day SMA, with a break below 0.622 to 0.6280 area raising the scope for a run at the January low, which largely lines up with the 200-day SMA.

Failure to defend the yearly opening range may push NZD/USD towards 0.6170, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6070.

However, lack of momentum to break/close below the 0.6220 to 0.6280 area may push NZD/USD back above the 50-day SMA, with a close above the 0.6380 to 0.6430 region opening up the 0.6510 to 0.6570 zone, which incorporates the monthly high.