08/29 Market report

 【Dow Jones】

Although the July PCE data of the United States showed that the price pressure had eased, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Powell made a hawkish speech at the annual meeting of the global central banks on Friday (26th), suggesting that the Federal Reserve Board would still raise interest rates aggressively in September, which caused the panic index VIX to surge, U.S. stocks to plummet, technology stocks to rumble and Dow Jones to close more than 1,000 points, the worst one-day performance since May.

Powell said in his speech at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole on Friday that the work of the United Democrats to reduce inflation has not been successful and will continue to raise interest rates for some time, warning that the US economy will face some pain in the future. He also mentioned that historical experience shows that the Federal Reserve will be worried about the premature cessation of interest rate hikes, and the labor market will be more likely to suffer a stronger impact.

Among the daily technical indicators of the Dow Jones industrial average, Alligator has shown a death cross, but it is already getting tangled up, indicating that although the Dow Jones industrial average has weakened upward, the short-term KD indicator has shown a low-end passivation, indicating that the whole short-term trend is in the empty direction after the sharp drop in the market last week.

USA30-D1: Downtrend

Price point: 33459

Current transactions:Hold empty orders with targets at 31800 and 31500

Alternatives:Set 33800 and 33500 after the price hit 33459

Comments:The RSI value of 39.01% was wide.

【Euro】

The zone will release the initial value of the consumer price index (CPI) for August on the 31st, with the market expected to be 9%, up from the previous value of 8.9%. Last week's data showed that the eurozone's composite PMI was below threshold for the second month in a row, the economic boom continued to decline, the fear of recession intensified, the European Central Bank (ECB) would have a more difficult path to raise interest rates in the future, while the euro fell to a 20-year low against the US dollar last week.

In the technical line of the euro zone's Japan line, the long-term Alligator forms a dead cross, indicating that the euro has fallen in the long run and the short-term KD has entered a dead cross. both the long-term and the short-term are biased towards short positions. the euro is in a short position, so investors should not go against the trend easily.

EURUSD-D1: Downtrend

Price point: 1.00854

Current transactions:Hold empty orders with targets at 0.99500 and 0.99200

Alternatives:Set 1.01800 and 1.01500 after the price hit 1.01245

Comments:The value of RSI was 28.91% and the market was slightly empty.

【Gold】

The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), held 984.38 metric tons of gold on the 26th.

According to the data of August 26 from FEDWatch, a market expectation monitoring tool calculated by Chicago Mercantile Exchange based on the futures price of the federal funds, the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase of 2 yards in September is expected to drop to 39% from 53% a week ago, and the probability of the rate increase of 3 yards is expected to rise to 61% from 47% a week ago.

Compared with a month ago, the market expected a 2-yard increase of 60.5%, a 3-yard increase of 35.4% and a 4.1% increase of 4 yards.

In the technical line of the Japanese gold line, the long-term Alligator shows a dead cross, while the short-term KD index shows a dead cross. However, the short-term decline is too fast and the index has not kept up with it, resulting in a low-grade deviation. If the short-term strength cannot be sustained, there may be a strong rebound.

XAUUSD-D1: Downtrend

Price point: 1765

Current transactions:Hold empty orders with targets at 1720.2 and 1718.8

Alternatives:Set 1768.2 and 1770.5 after the price hit 1765

Comments:The RSI value of 39.01% was wide.

【Crude Oil】

The possible cut in production, aided by OPEC+ and its allies, is due to Saudi Arabia's belief that if Iran reaches a nuclear agreement with European and American powers, it is possible to offset the impact of Iran's oil return to the market with a cut in production, and analysts' belief that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to allow oil prices in Europe and the United States to fall below $90 a barrel, prompting the oil price to end last week.

However, the hawkish remarks made by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve at the annual meeting pointed out that inflation has reached a 40-year high and the US may enter a painful period of slow economic growth and rising unemployment rate, which increases the prospect of interest rate increase and limits the oil price range. US crude rose 0.6% and London crude rose 1.7%.

In the technical line of crude oil, the long-term Alligator is tangled, indicating that the long-term crude oil trend is beginning to be fuzzy and chaotic, and the short-term KD index has just left the high-end protection zone to form a death cross, indicating that the rising strength of the short-term has turned back to the falling strength, and crude oil should wait patiently to get back to buy some.

USOIL-D1: Downtrend

Price point: 85.85

Current transactions:Hold empty orders with targets at 94.80 and 95.20

Alternatives:Set 85.2. and 84.8 after the price hit 85.85

Comments:The RSI value of 50.58% was too high.

OnePro Special Analyst

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