Daily Market Recap – USOIL Prices await an Opec agreement

Last Friday, OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on reducing its oil production restrictions. Russia and Saudi Arabia proposed to collectively increase production by 400,000 barrels/day each month between August and December 2021, while extending the agreement from April 2022 to December 2022.

The United Arab Emirates insisted that there was no need to extend it and reiterated their disappointment with the way their quota is calculated (using 2018 production as a base which is lower than the current one).

The group will meet again this afternoon. Saudi Arabia has made it clear that without the UAE, there would be no agreement and oil production would not increase. In this scenario, oil prices would rise significantly given the current tightness of the market. That said, a failed deal could actually lead to an all-out production scenario, reminiscent of the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia last year.

A compromise must be found as it remains the best solution for everyone to avoid the chaos of April 2020, but its shape is increasingly uncertain.

The dispute is throwing the global economy into uncertainty, with no indication of whether the cartel will pump more crude oil to mitigate the inflationary surge in prices or allow crude oil to continue to rise above $75 a barrel.

In televised interviews, the energy ministers of the two Middle Eastern countries escalated an increasingly personal and unusually public dispute. Behind the scenes, attempts to mediate by other cartel members made little progress, delegates said, and the disagreement manifested itself in diplomatic tensions broader than oil.

Oil prices halted their blazing advance on Thursday with a high wick near the 2018 highs. Prices failed to close above the psychological USD 75 level with the RSI in the overbought zone. Friday's doji reflects this indecision.

(Chart Source: Tradingview 05.07.2021)

However, oil is still moving above the 20- and 34-period moving averages, evidence of a bullish market. Prices could therefore breathe towards the latter and the latest market low at USD 71.76 without questioning the positive momentum. Only a close below this level would reverse the trend.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.