Daily Market Recap – EURUSD Continues Its Consolidation after ECB Announcement

The European Central Bank is keeping its main economic support package to fight the pandemic running at full speed, even as the economy shows signs of recovery thanks to fewer cases of the virus and fewer restrictions on activity in the 19 countries that use the euro currency.

The bank expects “a significant improvement” in the second quarter of the year, ECB President Christine Lagarde said Thursday after the decision was released. But she cautioned that the rebound “continues to depend on how the pandemic evolves and how the economy responds after the reopening.”

Ms. Lagarde said there are “some divergent views” on the pace at which to continue buying bonds, adding that it is still “too early” to discuss when the emergency program should end.

Meanwhile, the release of the inflation figure showed prices rose again above traders' expectations, up 0.6% from April and 5% from a year ago, the biggest 12-month inflation spike since 2008.

The Fed, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, has repeatedly expressed its belief that inflation will be temporary as supply bottlenecks are unblocked and coins and goods flow normally again. But some economists fear that as the economic recovery gathers momentum, fuelled by increased demand from consumers who are once again spending freely, inflation will also accelerate.

The debate over Fed policy is likely to intensify. Despite this, the euro has fallen only slightly.

The euro against the dollar remains in a horizontal consolidation between 1.2100 and 1.22244. A break of this last market low would expose it to a return to 1.1990.

(Chart Source: Tradingview 10.06.2021)

However, the European currency remains in a positive momentum above the 34-period moving average and the 200-period moving average. It now needs to break through the last high at 1.2267 to get back on track for the 2021 high at 1.2350.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.