Daily Market Recap – EURUSD tests key support at 1.20 ahead of NFP

The EUR/USD has been stabilizing since Tuesday after returning to key support at $1.20. Forex traders have been cautious since the beginning of the week, with the major currencies moving without much of a trend while waiting for the monthly US jobs report, the so-called NFP.

The consensus is for nearly one million jobs to be created in the U.S. in April, which would be the highest number since August 2020 and would support the scenario of an accelerated recovery of the U.S. economy in the second quarter thanks to the rapid reopening of the states.

A higher than expected reading would reinforce fears that the US economy is overheating and therefore the need for an interest rate hike, which would obviously be a very positive factor for the dollar, but negative for the equity markets, especially techs.

Conversely, a lower than expected reading should reduce fears of overheating, inflation, and therefore the need to normalize monetary policy.

From a technical perspective, support at 1.20 EUR/USD will be key. A pullback below it would form a bearish “head and shoulders” reversal pattern which would reinforce the bearish outlook given on Friday by the “evening star”.

A pullback below 1.20 would pave the way for a new down leg that could develop to the theoretical target of the chartist figure at 1.20.

In case of a rebound and a breakout from the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour time frame, the outlook would be bullish again and a return to the recent high at 1.2150 would be expected.

(Chart Source: Tradingview 06.05.2021)

While waiting for the NFP on Friday, the Euro received a slight boost from retail sales rising more than expected in March in the Eurozone (+2.7% compared to February). Consumers in the region are continuing to buy despite the current restraint measures which would be one of the very direct consequences of an excess of savings for 14 months.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.