Daily Market Recap -EURUSD Last ditch effort before breaking below 1.175

The euro weakened on Thursday against the US dollar hitting a new low since November as traders bet on a faster recovery in the US than in Europe, hit by a new wave of Covid-19.

At the time of writing the euro is down 0.33% against the greenback to 1.17734 Dollars per Euro. The Dollar Index (DXY), which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, climbed to its highest since mid-November.

At the beginning of the year, however, the foreign exchange market expected to see the dollar bend under the weight of the giant stimulus plan wanted by the Democrats of Joe Biden, recalls Hussein Sayed, the analyst at FXTM.

“But investors are instead focusing on economic forecasts, with U.S. growth expected to outpace that of other developed countries for several quarters, causing capital inflows rather than outflows,” he adds.

For Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management as well, the strength of the dollar was “less due to the weakness of the euro than to the difference in growth between the United States and Europe”. The US GDP is forecasted to grow 4.3 percent at the latest reading whereas the EU is lagging behind at 3.7 percent.

The pressure on the Euro can also be attributed to strong risk aversion that is being felt in the market which is playing in favor of the greenback. Particularly so as US equity markets remain shaky at best.

Meanwhile, the British pound which had started the year on a high note boosted by the conclusion of a post-Brexit trade agreement with the EU and by a rapid vaccination campaign, is now moving almost at the same level as on January 1 against the dollar (up 0.42%).

“The pound has suffered due to the tensions between the leaders of the UK and the EU on vaccines” which could “delay the British deconfinement plan”, comment analysts at OFX.

The EU decided on Wednesday to place exports of vaccines against Covid produced on its soil under high surveillance, in order to prevent the leakage to other countries of doses needed by Europeans.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned against “arbitrary blockades”, his government is trying to calm tensions: in a joint statement, London and Brussels have assured to work on “specific measures” to find a “mutually beneficial solution”.

(Chart Source: Tradingview 25.03.2021)

Looking at the technical picture behind the EURUSD, we note that sellers remain firmly in control after a defense of the 1.18522 level failed to hold. The next point of interest is the 1.17734 level which is currently being tested. The probability of a reversal at this point is slim with buyers likely holding off and eyeing a re-entry at the 1.16 value mark instead.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.