中国A股和恒指即将大涨？AETOS投研部主管对话汇丰首席分析师

本周四（8月17日）下午，AETOS投研部主管Glenn Yin在伦敦证交所集团（LSEG）主办的环球市场论坛中与汇丰集团亚洲市场首席分析师海罗德·林德尔（Herald van der Linde）进行了交谈，并对中国股市（富时A50股指）、香港恒生指数（HSI）以及亚洲股市的下半年行情进行展望。

Glenn：“您好，非常荣幸能够与您一起探讨亚洲股市。您能分享一下您对中国股市，特别是A50股指的看法吗？”

Glenn: “Good afternoon, Herald, pleasure meeting here in the Forum. Would love to hear your thoughts on Chinese equities, the A50 in particular.”

Herald：“您好，我认为说到中国股市，首当其冲就是资金流动性。目前我们看到全球投资者在配置中国股权时大多采用了减持的策略，而其中减持量最大的是那些专注于投资亚洲股权市场的基金。”

Herald: “Good afternoon, First on flows. we see that Global investors have remained pretty much deep UW on CH equities. its the Asian dedicated funds that have made moves. They were, at the start of the year, moving towards an OW stance in CH. But by May, this was cut, and they rotated into KR and TW equities. This is slowly continuing. They are now also UWE on CH equities.”

“这些基金在2023年初时采用的是增持中国股市的策略，但是到了5月份，这些基金已经转向，把相当一部分资金配置到了韩国和其他亚洲经济体的股市当中，而这个趋势现在仍然在持续。”

“As for the outlook, I still think that there will be more action coming from, policymakers. it just takes a bit of time. That could give us a bump in growth and can lift us over the winter. But it is probably short-lived. The real issue seems to be that appetite to consumer and invest in CH is very low.”

Glenn：“非常有建设性的分析，感谢您。这些专注于亚洲股市的基金在年初重仓中国股市是一步好棋，当时全球资本市场对于中国的全面开放都抱有非常乐观的态度。但是最近的经济数据却低于市场预期，那么您认为下半年的走势将如何呢？”

Glenn: “Very constructive insights Herald. It made sense for the Asian dedicated funds to go OW on China at the beginning of 2023, the optimism for reopening was very high. What are your thoughts on Chinese equities for the second half？”

Herald：“我们认为最主要的原因来自于消费疲软，消费者的购买力和消费者信心息息相关，目前看来并不会出现迅速反弹，我们需要看到更多的刺激政策出台。另外，中国居民的人均收入其实相对很高，但是人均支出却远远不及。”

“And that appetite has to do with confidence and that wont change too quickly. It would be good if we would get some stimulus for consumers. Household savings remain way too high in CH. Per capital income in CH is reasonably high but per capita consumption is really, really low.”

Glenn：“我们在本周看到央行突然降息，但是在刺激政策方面，市场显然是在期待更强的力度和速度。那么在缺少强效刺激的情况下，您认为中国A50股指在今年年底是否还有上升空间？”

Glenn: “We saw the PBOCs surprise cut this week, but markets are certainly expecting more stimulus. Absent of strong stimulus, where do you see A50 by year end？”

Herald：“我们认为从这里开始（目前价位）大概还有7~8%的上行空间，但这种情况需要触发两种罕见的前提，第一种是完全没有刺激政策，市场继续保持滞后，但在年底忽然出现拉升；第二种则是有相应的刺激政策出台。”

Herald: “We have about 7-8% upside from here. But I would see this almost as some strange average between a scenario where there is no stimulus and markets remain sluggish or considerable stimulus and then a sudden rally in CH stocks.”

Glenn：“感谢您的分享，那么对于香港恒生指数，您认为是否会出现不同的情景呢？”

Glenn: “Great insights. do you see a different narrative for HK50？”

Herald：“香港恒生指数中有大量的科技股，所以我觉得最主要的因素将是国际资金是否会流入的问题。第二季度财报季的最新结果显示大部分公司的业务状况都属于良好，即便有少数表现欠佳，其背后原因也主要是美国国债收益率——当美国国债收益率下降时，这些（恒生里的）科技股也将获得上行机会。”

Herald: “This is mostly big tech. and I think the key issue here are global flows. The earnings of these firms have done well in some cases or been broadly in line. there are risks of some weaker earnings in H2. But the key here is US bond yields. These large tech names are really sensitive to those yields. if and when they fall, this will be very positive to those tech names and pull the HK50 higher.”

Glenn：“说到美国国债收益率，10年期国债收益率在昨天已经达到了2008年雷曼兄弟破产前的最高水平，您认为这是市场对下周美联储年会的过度计价，还是说美国7月通胀和一系列经济数据的反弹已经改变了未来利率的预期？”

Glenn: “Awesomeness, and speaking of US yields, the 10Y just hit highest level since 2008 (before Lehman bankrupted), do you think this is largely due to markets overreacting to next week's Jackson Hole？ Or has the fundamentals changed after CPI rebounded in July？”

Herald：“我认为能源价格的上涨会促成通胀的短期反弹，但目前市场预期是美联储会将高利率保持更长一段时间，而峰值利率也大概率已经达到，其他一些国家的央行则开始准备适当放宽货币政策，比如智利、巴西和匈牙利。”

“The recent rise in energy prices is stirring up some worries in inflation near term. and maybe, the market suggests, the FED will be on hold a bit longer. But it looks increasingly likely that the peak for the policy rate has been reached in the US, and other central banks are leading with their own easing cycles; Chile, Brazil and Hungary are three examples.”

“我们分析师团队认为，今年的第四季度可能是美国市场比较动荡的时候，我们认为通胀率将在第四季度反弹至3.5%（年化），高于市场的3.1%年化通胀率，所以我们认为市场可能会面临负面影响。”

“Our economists expectations of Q4 headline inflation to average 3.5% y/y is above consensus expectations of 3.1% y/y. So, we expect the market to get a negative surprise in inflation later in the year.”

Glenn：“非常感谢您的时间以及详尽的分析，我们下次再见。”

Herald：感谢您，下次再见。

本次对话不仅为投资者带来了中国股市的权威分析和见解，同时也简要梳理了下半年的主要经济走势。