WTI Oil nears $100 as Middle East tensions keep supply concerns elevated

FXSTREET

| 2026-09-11 02:06

Abstract：West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rallies nearly 5% on Thursday, climbing to its highest level since May 21 as escalating tensions in the Middle East raise fears of further disruption to already tight supplies. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $99 and is up about 10.50% so far this week.

WTI climbs to its highest level since May as escalating Middle East tensions deepen supply concerns.
EIA data show a modest decline in US crude inventories.
OPEC cuts its 2026 demand growth forecast but raises its projection for next year.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rallies nearly 5% on Thursday, climbing to its highest level since May 21 as escalating tensions in the Middle East raise fears of further disruption to already tight supplies. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $99 and is up about 10.50% so far this week.

The advance follows a fresh escalation between the United States (US) and Iran in recent days, increasing security risks around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping remains heavily restricted following the outbreak of the war in late February. Adding to concerns, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing US and Middle Eastern officials, that Iran has resumed producing ballistic missiles.

Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and under its “intelligent control and information dominance.” The group warned that any hostile presence in the strategic waterway would be targeted, according to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB.

Supply concerns have also spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz after Iran-aligned Houthis seized Yemens port of Mocha on Thursday, increasing risks around the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, a Houthi spokesperson said current operations are limited to specific targets and described them as defensive, adding that navigation and international trade through the two waterways remain safe and uninterrupted.

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed that US crude Oil inventories fell by 391,000 barrels, missing expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel decline after inventories dropped by 4.45 million barrels a week earlier.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Wednesday, the EIA raised its average WTI price forecast for 2026 to $84.65 per barrel. The agency said global Oil inventories have fallen by around 400 million barrels so far this year and are expected to decline further through year-end, as significant volumes of Middle Eastern production and exports remain offline.

Meanwhile, OPEC offered a mixed demand outlook. The group lowered its forecast for global Oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day from 580,000 bpd. However, it raised its 2027 growth estimate to 2.36 million bpd from 2.16 million bpd.