Oil Tops $100 · Copper Hits Record High · U.S. Stocks Close Lower · Central Banks Turn Hawkish

Market Overview

Global markets focused on three major themes on Thursday.

First, escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude rose 3.36% to $101.21 a barrel, breaking above the $100 mark for the first time in more than a month and reaching its highest level since May. WTI crude gained 3.25% to $96.05 a barrel. Geopolitical risks intensified after Iran established a new maritime sanctions zone, U.S. forces struck an Iranian oil tanker, and Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Jordan.

Second, metals rallied across the board. London copper climbed to $14,858.50 per metric ton, while New York copper surged to $6.894 per pound, with both reaching record highs. Spot gold gained 1.06% to $4,401.77 an ounce, reclaiming the key $4,400 level, while spot silver advanced roughly 2.3%.

Third, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% to 7,636.36, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.64%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.84%, its highest level since November 2023.

Global monetary policy is also taking a more hawkish turn. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% next week, while the European Central Bank is expected to lift its deposit rate to 2.5% today. In China, August CPI rose 0.8% year over year, while PPI increased 3.8%, with both indexes returning to positive growth on a month-over-month basis.

Meanwhile, major technology companies continued to expand overseas. Amazon is reportedly planning $60 billion in Qualcomm chip purchases, Google is investing €13 billion in Finland, and Apple has unveiled a foldable iPhone.

Market OutlookCentral Bank Super Week: ECB Decision and the BOJ Rate Path

The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest-rate decision today, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point hike that would take the deposit rate to 2.5%. ECB President Christine Lagardes guidance will likely determine the near-term direction of both the euro and European equities.

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at next weeks meeting and could accelerate its tightening cycle to one rate hike per quarter. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already warned against short positions in the yen, signaling the possibility of more aggressive intervention.

With major central banks increasingly leaning hawkish, the interaction between interest-rate differentials and currency movements is becoming a key variable for global asset allocation in the second half of the year.

Middle East Geopolitics and the Oil-Price Transmission Chain

Geopolitical tensions continue to intensify after Iran established a maritime sanctions zone, U.S. forces struck an Iranian oil tanker, and Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Jordan. Against this backdrop, Brent crude has climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time in more than a month.

Combined with European natural gas inventories falling to a 15-year low, rising energy prices are once again fueling concerns over inflation.

The EIA and OPEC will release their latest market reports today, providing updated signals on global energy supply and demand. In the near term, shipping risks and potential supply disruptions remain the biggest swing factors for oil prices.

Key Events to Watch

• European Central Bank interest-rate decision and ECB President Christine Lagardes press conference

• U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly initial jobless claims

• China August CPI: +0.8% YoY; PPI: +3.8%, with both returning to positive month-over-month growth

• TSMC releases its August 2026 revenue report

• DeepSeek plans to officially launch its V4.1 Flash model

• EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook; OPEC publishes its Monthly Oil Market Report