Silver Price Forecast: XAG eyes 100-day SMA after Waller rally

Silver price advances by some 2.45% on Thursday, boosted by dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, which pushed the US Dollar and US Treasury yields lower. The XAG/USD trades at $66.90, after reaching a high of $67.48.

The white metal is neutral to downward biased. After hitting an all-time high of $121.66, the Silver price respects the market structure of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are in control.

Momentum shifted in favour of bulls in the short-term as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which dipped to its 50-neutral level before bouncing higher. Therefore, the path of least resistance is upwards.

To resume the uptrend, Silver must clear the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67.66. A breach of the latter will expose the August 28 swing high of $71.12, followed by the 200-day SMA at $72.78. If those two levels are taken out, buyers could challenge the May 25 high at $78.83, ahead of $80.00.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD struggles to break above the 100-day SMA, sellers could drive prices towards the September 2 swing low of $63.32. A decisive break will expose the 50-day SMA at 61.85, before the precious metal registers a leg lower towards $60.00.

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.