British Pound edges higher as USD softens ahead US jobs data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances during the North American session on Monday, up a modest 0.09%, as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower despite last Fridays hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, ahead of a packed week of economic data from the United States (US). At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3549.

Sentiment shifted sour as tensions between the US and Iran rose, driving energy prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, hit $85.56 per barrel, up some 2.50% after reaching a high of $86.79.

Attacks between the two countries decreased the likelihood of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran attacked US assets in Jordan and the UAE. Consequently, US President Donald Trump said retaliation is coming, according to Fox News.

On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recognized that inflation remains above the central banks target and is a priority, while assuring that the jobs market is solid.

After his speech, money markets had priced in a 64% chance of a rate increase for the September 16 meeting. Meanwhile, traders eye the release of Nonfarm Payrolls figures on Friday, followed by inflation data a week before the Federal Reserves next meeting.

On Tuesday, the US economic docket will release figures on manufacturing activity, namely the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to show a deceleration from 55.6 to 55.2. Also, traders will eye the release of JOLTS Job Openings for July, which are expected to show the strength of the labor market.

In the UK, domestic developments regarding new PM Andy Burnham's Autumn Budget, along with US Dollar dynamics, will provide direction for GBP/USD. Also, market participants would be keen to digest the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Hearings ahead of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Thursday.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3550, keeping a bullish near-term bias as the pair holds above the cluster of reclaimed structural levels and the triple simple moving average (50, 100, 200) around 1.3429. The break above the former descending resistance line with a key reference at 1.3385 and the downtrend line that previously capped gains near 1.3482 suggests buyers remain in control, while a Relative Strength Index (14) reading near 54 hints at steady, but not overstretched, momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent pivot area around 1.3550, followed by the former trend-line barriers now turned floors at 1.3482 and 1.3385, with the triple SMA and an additional rising support line clustered in the 1.3409–1.3429 region reinforcing the medium-term base. On the topside, the next notable resistance aligns with the broken rising trend line around 1.3644, where a rejection would signal consolidation, while a sustained break higher would open the way for a continuation of the broader bullish advance.