FXT Economic Data Summary (Asia-Pacific | 08/21)

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decline

In the week ending August 15, U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 206,000, below market expectations of 210,000, while the previous weeks figure was revised up from 209,000 to 212,000. The four-week moving average increased from 199,750 to 204,000, indicating that layoffs remain at relatively low levels, although initial claims have not continued to decline.

In the week ending August 8, continuing jobless claims increased by 18,000 to 1.799 million, while the four-week average rose to 1.789 million. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%. Low initial claims alongside rising continuing claims suggest that employment pressure is becoming more concentrated in the job-search and re-employment process. FXTRADING believes the U.S. labor market remains resilient for now, but hiring demand is cooling, and attention should be paid to whether this weakness begins to feed through to job creation and the unemployment rate.

Japans Energy Imports Widen Trade Deficit

Japans exports rose 23.2% year-on-year in July, exceeding expectations of 19.9% and marking the fastest growth since October 2022. Exports of semiconductor-related products increased 49.1%, semiconductor manufacturing equipment rose 40.9%, and automobile exports climbed 19.5%. Exports to China and the United States increased 25.8% and 22.0%, respectively. However, export volumes grew by only 5.2%, indicating that the weaker yen and higher prices significantly amplified the increase in nominal exports.

Imports rose 27.8% year-on-year over the same period, above expectations of 26.5%, while the trade deficit widened from JPY 156.3 billion a year earlier to JPY 634.5 billion. Amid the conflict with Iran and higher oil prices, the value of petroleum imports surged 87.8%, making energy costs a major driver of import growth. FXTRADING believes Japans exports continue to benefit from semiconductor demand and artificial intelligence investment, but nominal growth is running well ahead of actual shipment volumes, while import pressure from higher oil prices is also weakening the contribution of export growth to the economy.

Australias Private-Sector Wage Growth Cools

Australias Wage Price Index rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, maintaining the same pace for a fifth consecutive quarter, while annual growth slowed from 3.4% to 3.2%, well below the 4.3% peak recorded at the end of 2023. Private-sector wages increased 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 3.1% year-on-year, while public-sector wages rose 0.9% and 3.4%, respectively, continuing to record relatively stronger wage growth.

Over the past year, 79% of jobs recorded wage growth below 4%, up from 75% a year earlier, indicating that the prevalence of stronger wage increases continues to narrow. Wages in public administration and safety rose 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, while healthcare and social assistance wages increased 0.5%. FXTRADING believes wage pressures in Australia are gradually easing, particularly as private-sector pay growth continues to cool, reducing the risk of a renewed acceleration in labor costs.

UK Labor Market Continues to Contract

UK employment fell by 13,000 month-on-month and 94,000 year-on-year in July, while the decline in June was revised from 4,000 to 13,000, extending the downward trend since employment peaked in 2024. In the three months to June, the ILO unemployment rate remained at 4.9%, slightly above expectations of 4.8%, while the claimant count unexpectedly fell by 11,000, compared with market expectations for an increase of 16,500.

UK wage growth remained relatively resilient. From April to June, annual regular earnings growth increased from 3.4% to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.4%, while total earnings growth including bonuses slowed from 4.3% to 4.1%. FXTRADING believes UK labor demand continues to weaken, but wage pressures have yet to decline significantly, suggesting that the impact of a cooling labor market will take more time to feed through to wage growth.

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