Three Methods, Same Target — How Far Has Gold Gotten Today?

One-line summary: Spot gold currently trades at US$4,374.73 (+0.6% on the day), with today's intraday range at US$4,311.22-4,396.88 and an open of US$4,351.07; WTI crude is around US$82.40, the US Dollar Index is around 99.6-99.8

First, a recap: how we calculated the target on 8/14

Gold consolidated in a range between US$3,979-4,200 from June to mid-August — nearly two months; it broke decisively above the range top on August 5; on 8/14 we confirmed price held support at the EMA200 (around US$4,290-4,295). At the time we used three independent methods that cross-verified the same target zone:

Method 1: Measured Move In plain terms: whatever the height of the box, price is likely to "copy" that same height again once it breaks out. Project the height of the range upward from the breakout point, equidistantly.

• Range height = US$4,200 (top) − US$3,979 (bottom) = 221 points

• Projected up from the breakout point (US$4,200): US$4,200 + 221 = US$4,421

Method 2: Market Forecast Range In plain terms: this isn't something we calculated ourselves — it's a reference range from an independent market forecast model, used to cross-check whether our own calculated target holds up. The upper bound of the short-term price forecast range verified on 8/13 was US$4,441 (source: a market institution's forecast model for the next day's move, used purely as an independent reference, not our own calculation).

Method 3: Recent Actual High In plain terms: no calculation needed — just look at where the market itself has actually reached. This is the most "grounded" way to verify. Gold touched a "10-week high" intraday on 8/13, then pulled back near US$4,400 — showing the market itself had already genuinely tested this zone, not just a theoretical projection.

Three methods from completely different sources all pointed to the same US$4,400-4,441 zone — this is why we judged it to be the key target zone at the time.

How far has it gotten now？

Today (8/17) the intraday high touched US$4,396.88 — already reaching the US$4,400 psychological level, very close to the US$4,441 upper bound from Method 2, but still short of breaking the US$4,421 core target from Method 1; the current price (US$4,374.73) has also pulled back to the middle of the range.

In other words: the target zone hasn't truly been broken yet, but price has walked right up to the final step of verification — which, from another angle, also proves that the 8/14 three-method cross-check was valid, not a coincidence.

If this level truly holds, where's the next stop

How it's measured: this uses exactly the same logic as Method 1 — just swapping the "launch point" from the original breakout level (US$4,200) to the EMA200 support level (US$4,325) we confirmed held on 8/14, then projecting the same range height (221 points) upward again:

• US$4,325 (support) + 221 (range height) = US$4,546

In other words: this isn't a new method reinvented from scratch — it's the same "ruler," just measured again from a different starting point. The diagram plots both measurements together so you can see at a glance where the two 221-point projections come from.

This is the next technical target, but it's still premature — the US$4,400-4,441 threshold hasn't truly been conquered yet.

This week's focus (Monday — this week's calendar preview)

Today is Monday, so here's what's on the calendar this week that could affect whether this target gets confirmed:

• Wednesday (8/20): FOMC meeting minutes released — not a new rate decision, but the detailed discussion record from the meeting three weeks ago, which may reveal hawk-dove splits among officials and historically has triggered bigger repricing than the original statement

• Thursday (8/21): The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium opens, with initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, flash PMIs, and existing home sales also releasing the same day

• Home Depot (Tuesday), Target/Lowe's (Wednesday), and Walmart (Thursday) report earnings, offering a read on consumer resilience

• Note: Chair Warsh's first formal Jackson Hole keynote as chair is scheduled for next week (8/27-29) — this week is only the symposium's opening, not the speech itself

Further Reading

From holding support on 8/14 to reaching the cross-verified target zone today — this chain of logic has held up well so far. The real test is whether the US$4,400-4,441 threshold can be decisively broken, and this Wednesday's and Thursday's two events may be the key variables that decide it.

Disclaimer

This content is for market information and opinion-sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. Financial markets carry risk, and leveraged products may result in the partial or total loss of principal. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance, and bear the corresponding risks themselves.