ETO Markets Global Pulse: Oil Holds 80 as Iran Risks Build

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on July 15 (Wednesday), WTI crude edged higher and closed at USD 80.24 per barrel, up 0.51% on the day. Brent crude closed at USD 85.61 per barrel, up 0.36%. Although the US launched another round of airstrikes on Iranian military facilities and the IRGC threatened to close more key export routes, the market response to the escalation remained relatively limited.

On July 16 (Thursday) during early Asian trading, WTI crude traded near USD 80.24 per barrel. A smaller-than-expected draw in US crude inventories limited further upside, leaving prices in a high-level consolidation pattern.

Global Headlines

Trump Weighs Wider Iran Action

Trump held a meeting in the White House Situation Room to review three escalation options. These included sending US forces to seize Kharg Island, bombing the Gaoshan tunnel complex linked to nuclear activity, and expanding airstrikes to include energy facilities. Trump has not made a final decision. The tunnel complex is built under granite at a depth of 300 to 475 feet, and existing US bunker-buster bombs may struggle to penetrate it.

Qalibaf Says Iran Stays Ready

Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf said Iran has never welcomed war and never will, but must always remain prepared to fight to protect national security and interests. He also said Iran should use diplomacy and negotiations to secure its interests. Qalibaf added that the memorandum only matters if all terms are valid and implemented. If Iran gains no benefit, there is no reason to comply.

Trump Seeks Cuts, Respects Warsh

Trump said in an interview that a FED pause would be better than a rate hike, and repeated that he wants interest rates to fall. He said inflation should be lower by year-end and that he would give Warsh some room to push for rate cuts. Trump said he respects Warsh but noted potential resistance within the FED Board. On oil, he said prices could fall to USD 55 per barrel once the Iran situation stabilizes, adding that Iran wants to meet and is eager for a settlement.

Beige Book Shows Moderate Growth

The latest FED Beige Book showed that US economic activity improved moderately from late May through June, with 11 of 12 districts reporting growth. Inflation remained moderate overall, but district views on the outlook differed. Energy price uncertainty was the biggest variable. The labor market stayed solid, employment expanded slightly, and shortages of skilled workers pushed wages higher.

Cook Says Inflation Risks Dominate

FED Governor Cook said the AI investment boom, tariffs, and supply shocks from Middle East tensions have made inflation risks greater than employment risks. Although June CPI posted its first month-on-month decline in six years, inflation remains close to twice the 2% target. Cook said she is ready to act if there are no clear signs of inflation easing.

China Social Financing Grows 7.4%

Chinas central bank data showed that total social financing outstanding reached RMB 462.06 trillion at the end of June, up 7.4% year-on-year. RMB loans to the real economy stood at RMB 279.16 trillion, up 5.3%. Corporate bond balances rose 8.9% to RMB 36.08 trillion, while government bond balances increased 14.2% to RMB 101.36 trillion.

FED July Hold Near 90%

CME FedWatch showed an 88.8% probability that the FED will keep rates unchanged in July, with an 11.2% chance of a 25bps hike. By September, markets priced a 51.2% chance of no change, a 44% chance of a 25bps hike, and a 4.7% chance of a 50bps hike. By December, the probability of a 25bps hike stood at 44.3%, while the chance of at least 50bps of tightening was 26.6%.

ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Oil)

WTI crude remains below the 81.70 level, keeping the short-term structure in a downtrend. If prices stay capped below this key resistance, the market will continue to watch the 78.50 area. A clear break below 78.50 could open the way toward 76.50.

If WTI breaks back above 81.70 and holds there, short-term downside pressure may ease. Upside could then test 83.50 and potentially extend toward 85.50.

The technical structure still identifies 78.50 as an important short-term support level. A break below this level may trigger a deeper move toward 76.50.

The market continues to reprice US military action against Iran, Strait of Hormuz risks, US inventory changes, and FED policy expectations. Traders should carefully assess market timing and risk exposure.

Disclaimer

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