Fed hike fears eased; USD paused after 3-day rise. Gold back above $4,000, up 2%+ on supply concerns

On Thursday, the US inflation data was mostly in line with expectations, easing concerns about the Fed's upcoming interest rate hike. The US dollar index stopped rising for three consecutive days and ultimately closed down 0.1% at 101.45; The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.398%, while the 2-year Treasury yield sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate closed at 4.135%. Spot gold experienced a volatile rebound and reversal on Thursday (June 25th), recovering from the important psychological barrier of $4000. This rebound is not accidental, but a chain reaction brought about by the latest inflation data in the United States: the seemingly high PCE inflation reading, after meeting expectations, actually eased extreme concerns in the market about the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, driving the US dollar to weaken and bond yields to fall, injecting strong upward momentum into gold prices. This scene not only reshapes the short-term sentiment of the gold market, but also reveals a deeper macro game logic for investors. On Friday (June 26th) morning trading in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around $4020 per ounce. Due to the recurrence of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices have rebounded. WTI crude oil once reached the $73 mark, but then fell back and finally closed up 2.19% at $72.01 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 2.39% at $75.18 per barrel.