China Stocks Surge · Crude Oil Slides · Dollar Strength Persists · Nasdaq Pulls Back

Market Overview

Global markets focused on three key themes on Monday.

First, the United States and Iran reached a preliminary roadmap in their ongoing negotiations, aiming to finalize a comprehensive agreement within the next 60 days. The easing of geopolitical tensions triggered a sharp retreat in the risk premium embedded in energy markets. July WTI crude futures settled at $74.82 per barrel, down 2.32%, while Brent crude declined 3.31%.

Second, Chinese equities rallied strongly on surging trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.78% to close at 4,163, while the ChiNext Index advanced 2.52%. Investor sentiment was boosted by the launch of Zhipu AI's GLM-5.2 model, with the company's market capitalization surpassing HK$1 trillion. U.S. equities, however, delivered mixed performance. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.33%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.37%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.29%.

Third, the U.S. dollar continued its advance, approaching a one-year high, while the Japanese yen weakened toward 162 per dollar, hovering near its lowest level in almost four decades. The stronger dollar weighed on precious metals, with gold futures falling 1.0% and silver declining 1.1%.

The semiconductor upcycle also remained firmly intact. South Korea's semiconductor exports during the first 20 days of June surged 188% year-over-year, while Micron Technology signed a long-term memory supply agreement with Anthropic, underscoring sustained demand driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Meanwhile, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation, with the Labour Party scheduled to begin its leadership nomination process in July.

Market OutlookGlobal June PMI Data Take Center Stage

June PMI readings from the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan, and India will be released in rapid succession, providing investors with a timely snapshot of economic momentum across major economies.

Against the backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated interest rates, markets will closely monitor divergences between manufacturing and services activity. Particular attention will be paid to new orders and employment components, which may offer early signals regarding growth prospects for the second half of the year.

Power Constraints Emerge as the Next Semiconductor Bottleneck

South Korea's near-tripling of chip exports and Micron's long-term supply agreement highlight that AI-related computing demand continues to accelerate.

However, analysts at Bernstein caution that the industry's key constraint is shifting. Rather than manufacturing capacity, the next critical bottleneck may be electricity supply. As data centers consume increasing amounts of power, companies capable of securing reliable energy infrastructure and advanced cooling solutions are likely to gain significant pricing power and competitive advantages in the next phase of the AI investment cycle.

Key Events to Watch

• June PMI releases from the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan, and India

• MSCI Annual Market Classification Review announcement

• U.S.-Iran technical-level negotiations in Switzerland

• Timeline for U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's departure from office

• Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan passes away at age 100

• 2026 Volcano Engine Force Conference

• Summer Davos Forum 2026