U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Reached, Oil Prices Tumble, U.S. Stocks Extend Record Rally

Market Overview

A formal peace agreement between the United States and Iran has been reached. President Donald Trump announced that a deal had been finalized, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening to global shipping. The official signing ceremony is scheduled to take place in Switzerland on June 19. The easing of geopolitical tensions triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices, with WTI crude falling 3.22% on Friday and posting a weekly loss of 6.25%.

Risk appetite remained strong across global markets. U.S. equities continued their record-breaking rally, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.50%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.70%, and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.31%.

SpaceX surged approximately 19% on its first day of trading, lifting its market capitalization to around $2 trillion and surpassing Tesla to become the sixth-largest U.S. listed company. Elon Musk also became the first individual in history to surpass a net worth of $1 trillion.

Asian markets broadly advanced, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 2.81%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gaining 1.93%, and mainland Chinese equities closing higher across the board.

Gold declined 2.5% for the week despite opening more than 1% higher on Monday. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.48%, while the U.S. Dollar Index held steady at 99.75 after recording its largest weekly decline since early May.

Iran Peace Agreement Sends Oil Prices Lower

President Trump announced that a formal agreement with Iran had been reached, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the official signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland.

WTI crude oil fell 3.22% to settle at $84.88 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 3.37%. Oil prices lost more than 6% for the week, with an additional decline of over 4% during Monday's Asian trading session.

U.S. Equities Reach New Highs as SpaceX Debuts

Major U.S. stock indices continued to post record highs.

SpaceX surged approximately 19% in its market debut, pushing its valuation to roughly $2 trillion and overtaking Tesla as the sixth-largest publicly traded company in the United States. Elon Musk became the first trillionaire in modern history.

Among notable movers, Intel jumped 6.5% on Friday and gained more than 25% for the week.

Credit Growth Improves as AI Supply Chain IPO Activity Accelerates

China's total social financing (TSF) increased by RMB 2.03 trillion in May, while total outstanding loans surpassed RMB 280 trillion.

South Korean memory-chip leader SK Hynix is reportedly targeting an August Nasdaq listing and aims to raise approximately $14 billion.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) expanded its global foundry market share to 72% in the first quarter, while quarterly revenue rose 6.3% year-over-year to $35.86 billion.

Precious Metals Recover While Dollar Remains Under Pressure

Spot gold posted a weekly decline of 2.5%, although prices opened more than 1% higher on Monday. Silver traded at $67.99.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 4.48%, while the 30-year Treasury yield moved below the 5% threshold once again.

The U.S. Dollar Index remained unchanged at 99.75 but recorded its largest weekly decline since early May.

Market OutlookU.S.-Iran Peace Agreement Implementation Takes Center Stage

The official signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

If the agreement is signed as planned and the ceasefire framework is effectively implemented, geopolitical risk premiums could continue to unwind. This would likely place further downward pressure on crude oil prices while providing additional support for risk assets, including global equities.

Busy Week Ahead for Macro and Geopolitical Developments

Market participants will closely monitor a series of major events this week, including the G7 Summit in France and remarks from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

Economic data releases will also draw attention, particularly the June New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production figures for May. The combination of easing geopolitical tensions and incoming macroeconomic data could significantly influence expectations for global growth and the future path of interest rates.

Key Events to Watch

• Progress toward the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement on June 19 in Switzerland

• G7 Summit in France and remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde

• Post-listing trading performance of SpaceX, currently valued at approximately $2 trillion

• SK Hynix's proposed Nasdaq IPO and planned $14 billion fundraising

• U.S. June New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index and May Industrial Production data

• Further market interpretation of China's May credit data, including Total Social Financing (TSF) and M2 money supply figures