US500 – Peace Deal Lifts Stocks, But the Fed Is Next

The S&P 500 jumped to around 7,520 today after the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war. Trump called the agreement complete, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the naval blockade lifted. Asian and US markets rallied, and oil fell. The war risk that had weighed on stocks since February is finally easing.

There's a catch, and it points to Wednesday. The Fed meets this week in its first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh. A peace deal pushes oil lower, and cheaper oil cools inflation. That could let the Fed sound calmer about prices, which would help stocks. But inflation is still at a three-year high of 4.2%, so Warsh may stay cautious. The real thing to watch is the Fed's own forecast for where rates go next.

One more note on risk. The deal is called complete, but the details are still being worked out, and Israeli strikes in Lebanon could test it. A market this high can fall fast if the good news slips.

S&P 500 key levels:

• Resistance: 7,550 / 7,600 / 7,650

• Support: 7,500 / 7,470 / 7,450

Watching: Iran deal details, the Fed decision, and the dot plot on Wednesday, oil prices.

By Born2trade market research department

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