Inflation fears boost rate hike bets; USD rises, gold < $4500, US oil ~ $104.

On Tuesday, US Vice President Vance stated that progress has been made in negotiations between the US and Iran, and neither side wishes to resume military action. However, the US has also prepared a "Plan B" to restart military action; The mediator believes that there has been almost no progress in the US Iran negotiations, and Iran insists on keeping its core demands unchanged. The US dollar index reversed its downward trend and ultimately closed up 0.34% at 99.30; The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.677%, while the 2-year Treasury yield sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate closed at 4.131%. On May 19th, gold prices plummeted by over 1.8%, with spot gold dropping as low as $4464.85 per ounce and closing at $4481.83. Affected by the Middle East US Iran conflict, oil prices have risen above $110, inflation concerns have intensified, and US bond yields have reached a new high, with the US dollar index rising to a six week high. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has risen to about 55%, and high real interest rates significantly increase the opportunity cost of gold. WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 1.29% at $107.65 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.53% at $110.99 per barrel.