Oil jumps on Gulf shock

Brent and WTI crude surged as traders repriced the risk of a prolonged disruption in Gulf energy flows. For Forex readers, that matters because oil is a key macro input for inflation, dollar pricing, and risk sentiment, and the latest move is being driven by a supply shock rather than routine demand changes.

Gulf disruption pushes crude sharply higher

The clearest source-backed event in the input is a sharp rise in oil prices after conflict in the Middle East intensified and the Strait of Hormuz was described as effectively shut. According to Rabobank strategists Michael Every, Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura, Brent and WTI benchmarks jumped to near $120 a barrel on March 19, while physical prices moved even higher, with Dubai crude above $150 to $166.

That gap between paper benchmarks and physical barrels matters. It suggests the market is not only reacting to headlines, but also to immediate stress in actual supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the worlds main oil shipping channels, so any disruption there quickly feeds into global pricing, inflation concerns and broader macro trading.

Rabobank said the market is now reassessing the risk of a long interruption in global energy flows. The bank expects the strait to remain fully closed until the end of April, with shipping only gradually returning after that. In its estimate, crude and refined product flows recover to about 80% of pre-war levels only by August.

Higher oil assumptions reset the macro backdrop

Rabobank raised its price assumptions to reflect a slower recovery in supply. It now estimates Brent will average $107 a barrel in the second quarter of 2026, $96 in the third quarter and $90 in the fourth. For WTI, the bank put the second to fourth quarter averages at $98, $88 and $83 a barrel.

The bank also lifted its 2027 average forecasts to $83 for Brent and $77 for WTI, before showing a lower Brent average of $71.50 in 2028. Those are forecast levels from the cited source, but the immediate news value is that a major bank has formally repriced the scale and duration of the supply shock.

What is driving it is straightforward: attacks on energy assets, shipping disruption, and the view that reopening Hormuz would not quickly restore normal flows. Rabobank also flagged the risk of further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, which would keep supply constrained for longer.

Why it matters is that the FX market is dealing with an energy shock that feeds directly into inflation expectations, import bills and broader risk appetite. In the current tape, crude is not just rising on sentiment. It is being repriced around disrupted physical supply, and that keeps oil at the center of the macro and currency market story.