Harmovest Capital | Key Insights: Will Gold Stay Supported as Risk Sentiment Eases?

24/04/2026

Key Highlights

• The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been extended for three weeks

• Market safe-haven sentiment has eased

• Gold downside remains limited

Market Review

Following direct talks at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended for three weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remains in expansion territory, while inflationary pressures continue to rise.

The latest data shows that U.S. economic activity in April rebounded slightly from near stagnation in the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in business conditions.

The Services PMI rose from 49.8 last month to 51.3, returning to expansion territory, while the Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.3 to 54, reaching its highest level in nearly four years, signaling continued growth in business production activity.

Businesses widely reported that supply chain tensions caused by the war have tightened the supply of certain raw materials and energy resources. This has prompted companies to build inventories in advance, resulting in purchasing behavior similar to the panic buying seen during the pandemic period.

Prices for goods and services have risen broadly. Manufacturing input prices climbed to a 10-month high, while service sector selling prices reached their highest level in nearly 45 months, indicating that inflationary pressures have intensified again.

At the same time, consumer spending patterns have shifted, with more income being allocated to energy costs such as gasoline. This has limited demand growth in sectors such as tourism and financial services, resulting in a slower pace of overall economic recovery.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow model estimates that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be approximately 1.2%, showing improvement from previous projections but still remaining within a moderate growth range.

Impact on Financial Instruments

USD | Gold | S&P 500

PMI data remaining in expansion territory suggests that the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, providing support for the U.S. dollar.

Rising inflationary pressures may delay expectations for interest rate cuts, which could provide medium- to long-term support for gold prices.

Moderate economic growth combined with rising cost pressures may squeeze corporate profit margins, leading to short-term volatility in equity markets.

Summary

Although the U.S. PMI has strengthened, it also indicates that inflation is likely to rise gradually in the future. Consumer spending capacity may slow, while safe-haven sentiment is expected to remain relatively elevated. This could support continued strength in the U.S. Dollar Index, while precious metals may still face downside risks in the near term.

Todays Key Event Outlook

• UK Retail Sales Data

• Canada Retail Sales Data

The market will closely monitor the upcoming UK retail sales data. Historical trends suggest that the UK economy has gradually slowed, and market expectations indicate that the data may come in below forecasts.

Impacted Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. Equity Indices

Todays Trading Strategy

Positioning: Long on Precious Metals

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure overall market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are driven more by fear or greed.

According to the latest data, the index currently stands at 70 (risk-on sentiment), compared to the previous reading of 36, indicating that safe-haven demand has gradually declined.

The market is gradually digesting developments related to the Iran conflict, leading to easing safe-haven sentiment. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index has begun to trend lower, while risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies have shown upward momentum.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Following the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a temporary ceasefire with Iran, market safe-haven sentiment has cooled significantly. This has contributed to a decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and indirectly supported upward momentum in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, gold has broken above the 4844 resistance level and is expected to maintain strong bullish momentum in the short term. Traders are advised to continue positioning for long opportunities, with key support to monitor around the 4675 level.