Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Is Dollar Weakness Driving Risk Sentiment Higher?

17/04/2026

Key Focus Summary

• The United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has received a boost

• Market safe-haven sentiment remains elevated

• The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trend downward

Market Review

The United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product Shows Renewed Strength

• Compared with the three months to November 2025, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to February 2026.

• Previously, GDP grew 0.3% in the three months to January 2026 (revised upward from 0.2% in our previous publication), while there was no growth in the three months to December 2025 (revised downward from 0.1% in our previous publication).

• The largest contribution to the three-month growth came from the services sector, which increased by 0.5%.

• Production output rose by 1.2%, while construction output declined by 2.0% in the three months to February 2026.

• In this release, revisions can be made to all industries from January 2024 onward. Our National Accounts revision policy has been updated to better reflect the dynamic nature of the UK economy.

• In the three months to February 2026, output increased in 10 out of 14 sub-sectors, with the largest positive contributions coming from:

• Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.4%), driven by wholesale trade (excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles), which increased by 3.1%

• Information and communication (up 1.6%), supported by publishing activities (up 9.1%) and computer programming, consultancy, and related activities (up 1.4%)

• Transportation and storage (up 1.9%), driven by warehousing and support activities (up 2.4%) and land transport and pipeline transport services (excluding rail), which increased by 2.1%

Meanwhile, declines were observed in:

• Administrative and support service activities (down 0.8%), mainly due to decreases in rental and leasing activities (down 4.0%) and employment activities (down 3.1%)

• Arts, entertainment, and recreation (down 1.4%), driven by a 2.4% decline in sports and recreational activities

• Real estate activities (down 0.1%), mainly due to decreases in real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (down 5.9%) and in the buying, selling, renting, and operating of own or leased real estate (excluding imputed rent), which fell 0.2%

Affected Financial Instruments

(GBP, Gold, S&P 500)

Summary

As the United Kingdom's GDP shows renewed strength, market safe-haven sentiment has gradually cooled, causing precious metals (Gold and Silver) to face short-term downward pressure.

Today's Key Events to Watch

• Australia Employment Change

• United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Today's market will closely monitor the UK GDP data. Historical data indicates that the UK's economic system has gradually entered a slowdown phase, leading the market to expect that the upcoming data may come in below expectations.

Affected Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. Equity Indices

Today's Trading Strategy

Long Positions: Precious Metals

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are currently driven by fear or greed.

According to the latest data, the index stands at 56 (Risk Sentiment), compared to the previous reading of 47, indicating that market safe-haven demand is gradually declining.

The market is gradually digesting developments related to the Iran conflict, leading to a cooling of safe-haven sentiment. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index has entered a downward trend, while risk assets such as equity indices and cryptocurrencies have begun to move higher.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD

Following U.S. President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, market safe-haven sentiment has eased significantly. This has led to a decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and indirectly supported the upside potential for gold.

From a technical perspective, gold has broken above the 4844 resistance level and is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term. Traders are advised to continue positioning for long opportunities, with key support to watch around the 4759 level.